Written by Gary
Opening Market Commentary For 08-30-2013
Premarkets were quiet and remained even with yesterday's closing numbers until the opening. This mornings financials reported that US Consumption, Spending and Personal Income were all down, -1.2%, -0.1% and -0.1% respectively. The Chicago PMI came in at 53.0 as expected and the U of Michigan Confidence came in at 82.1, higher than expected. Mixed news, so how are the markets going to react to this crop of bad reports?
Large caps opened down -0.1% on low volume (and falling) while the small caps lead the way down at 0.45%. By 10 am the $VIX had reached 17.10, highest since July, and the market flavor of the morning is negative, potentially terrifying.
Oils and the US dollar are up while copper is down and gold is try to melt up. The UK is not going to join the US in 'punishing' Syria, but France is. Somehow this is not a good combination, I see a market disaster in the making with this duo. Somehow, this is not how I would start a fairy tale with Prince Charming riding off into a beautiful sunset having rescued the damsel in distress. This market is going to be more like Prince Terrifying with black cape, hat and swan at his side.
Moments ago, Reuters reported that the regime which as we reported is behind the entire conflict in Syria (hint: nat gas) has raised its level of military alertness in anticipation of a possible Western strike in Syria, sources familiar with the matter said on Friday.
Saudi Arabia's defense readiness, their version of DefCon, has been raised to "two" from "five", a Saudi military source who declined to be named told Reuters.
"One" is the highest level of alert. "It is a must, no one knows what will happen," he said. And so all those who thought there would be no war and sold off gold and crude, are suddenly caught short.
More curious is why Saudi is leaking this information to the media: another provocation, and an attempt to accelerate a conflict which is rapidly fizzling?
Remember: for Saudi Arabia "no war" is the worst possible outcome. If so, expect more mysterious "chemical attacks" in the coming hours and days to cement the Western resolve to blow up Assad.
The DOW at 10:45 is at 14798 down 42 or -0.28%.
The SP500 is at 1633 down 5 or -0.32%.
SPY is at 163.66 down 0.51 or -0.31%.
The $RUT is at 1018 down 9 or -0.84%.
NASDAQ is at 3595 down 25 or -0.69%.
NASDAQ 100 is at 3073 down 21 or -0.67%.
The longer trend is up, the past months trend is bullish, the past 5 sessions have been down and the current bias is negative.
WTI oil is trading between 106.78 and 108.76 today. The session bias is positive and is currently trading down at 108.11.
Brent Crude is trading between 113.64 and 115.41 today. The session bias is positive and is currently trading down at 115.00.
Gold fell from 1410.95 earlier to 1392.19 and is currently trading down at 1395.40.
Dr. Copper is at 3.228 falling from 3.276 earlier.
The US dollar is trading between 81.93 and 82.24 and is currently trading up at 82.23, the bias is currently bullish.
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Written by Gary