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Syrian Escalation Threatens To Take The Markets With It.

August 28th, 2013
in Gary's blogging, market close

Written by

Closing Market Commentary For 08-28-2013

I guessed today would be a consolidation of sorts and it was. Investors are really scared to what might happen to their long positions if this Syrian thing goes the wrong way, which it could. The averages were mostly up as there are more bulls than bears at this point. If the Syrian 'condition' turns sour, the bulls are going to be a sorry lot as they take a big hit as they try to catch a falling knife.

By 4 pm the indices had retreated from their daily high, but posting respectable gains for the day. Still the highs were lower than yesterday's session and that isn't a good thing.

Follow up:

My continual gloss-over about not much will happen when the rockets fly into Syria is just a bit of my dark humor. I think everyone knows there is way more downside to slinging a few cruise missiles into Syria that the current administration will let on or possibly, maybe, they don't know. At any rate, I believe I have been clear that this is not the time to be making financial decisions based on what is known right now. If I had to guess, and I hate guessing, the market is poised to take a great fall, but then I am just guessing, right?

Mr. Cam Hui, author of the article below, is far more eloquent regarding the situation in Syria. His in-depth look at the 'deals' on the table and the possible consequences of them coming to fruition is truly alarming. This time around it really isn't about oil; a must read.

Syria: What I Worry About

I believe that the knee-jerk reaction to sell stocks on the fear of an oil price spike is unwarranted. However, I have other concerns of other risks. If these risks materialize, they could cause grave concern for Europe and the growth outlook for the global economy.

The DOW at 4:00 is at 14824 up 48 or 0.33%.

The SP500 is at 1635 up 4.48 or 0.27%.

SPY is at 163.95 up 0.58 or 0.36%.

The $RUT is at 1016 up 3.01 or 0.30%.

NASDAQ is at 3593 up 15 or 0.41%.

NASDAQ 100 is at 3072 up 13 or 0.41%.

The longer trend is up, the past months trend is bullish, the past 5 sessions have been bearish and the current bias is negative.

How Oil Really Gets Priced

WTI oil is trading between 112.23 and 109.19 today. The session bias is negative and is currently trading down at 109.43.

Brent Crude is trading between 117.34 and 114.84 today. The session bias is neutral with a negative slant and is currently trading down at 115.94.

Gold fell from 1433.52 earlier to 1415.50 and is currently trading down at 1417.20.

Here's why copper has lost its indicator role

Dr. Copper is at 3.317 falling from 3.354 earlier.

The US dollar is trading between 81.13 and 81.64 and is currently trading down at 81.45, the bias is currently neutral with a negative slant.

To contact me with questions, comments or constructive criticism is always encouraged and appreciated:

gary@econintersect.com

 

Written by Gary

 









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