Closing Market Commentary For 08-15-2013
We didn't get the hockey stick chart I was expecting, but then again this casino market hasn't done anything predictable for several years, so why should I be surprised. It appears there is a minor support where the majors have bounced off of 3 or 4 times today all on low volume and that is where we end this session.
By 4 pm the investors had run out of steam, money or courage as the markets simply stopped after sliding sideways for almost the entire session. No fanfare, no last minute spike in volume – nothing – the session ending bell rang and everyone hurried out to catch a train to the burbs! Is this all there is to the stock market?
We went down this morning and stayed down to what is best described as a weak support zone that doesn't show up on any charts. If I were to guess at a support for the DOW, it would have been higher at 15280 or lower at 14990 and not at 15090. But that is the area where QQQ, $DJI and the $RUT have hesitated today.
The one BIG issue to consider is that the averages HAVE already penetrated an upper support level (15280) and the markets are simply on their way down and today was simply a pausing point. The next support (~14990) is only 140 to 150 points down for the DOW and that is easily attainable in a single session. If the DOW bounces off that mark, we should be in good shape for further gains, but then there is always that big 'BUT'.
The last decline starting on 6-19-13 was about 775 points on the DOW before it started upwards again. The same point fall from the DOW's high on 8-2-13 would take us to a major support at ~14883 which would be another ball game if that support is broken – stay tuned. (maybe the advocates of the Hindenburg Omen are correct and we should be concerned!)
The DOW at 4:00 is at 15112 down 225 or -1.47%.
The SP500 is at 1661 down 24 or -1.43%.
SPY is at 166.30 down 2.44 or -1.45%.
The $RUT is at 1027 down 20 or -1.93%.
NASDAQ is at 3606 down 63 or -1.72%.
NASDAQ 100 is at 3076 down 53 or -1.70%.
The longer trend is up, the past months trend is bullish, the past 5 sessions have been negative and the current bias is bearish.
WTI oil is trading between 107.85 and 106.60 today. The session bias is sideways and is currently trading down at 107.19.
Brent crude is trading between 110.03 and 108.97 today. The session bias is sideways and is currently trading down at 109.36.
Gold fell from 1344.28 earlier to 1318.08 and then rebounded reaching 1369.20 and is currently trading up at 1363.30.
Dr. Copper is at 3.356 rising from 3.288 earlier.
The US dollar is trading between 81.11 and 81.99 and is currently trading down at 81.17, the bias is currently negative.
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Written by Gary