Opening Market Commentary For 07-19-2013
It would seem that Dr. Ben's smoke up the pants leg and is turning out to be a pain in the butt as the session begins a slow start. This session is a caution day because of options expiration and it's Friday. Dr. Ben didn't convince investors that free ice cream is a good thing, so once again investors are sitting on their hands waiting.
Markets opened down, mixed on low volume. Trading range is tight and currently sideways s Mr. Markets isn't giving out any hints as to what is going to happen next.
The worries investors have is not unwarranted as pointed out in the following article.
Markit has released its global business confidence survey, and it makes for sobering reading.
Due to sharp declines in business confidence in both the US and China, a new post crisis low has been reached in June.
Only the UK was a notable exception, as business confidence there jumped. We would submit that this is no coincidence, as the pace of money supply growth is increasing sharply in the UK, while it it slowing down in both the US and China. The culprit for the slowdown in money supply growth in the US is lending by commercial banks, which is decelerating sharply even as monetary pumping by the central bank continues at full blast.
The RRR** was narrow at the opening bell today and it doesn't look like it is going to expand any in today's session. The indicators are mostly bullish at 60% buy and moving up from 25% to 30% sell.
There is a wedge between perception and reality that has been going on for some time now where the reality doesn't match this continued bull run.
The trading range has been so narrow that way too much money has to be put on the table just to get back meager gains.
The DOW at 10:30 is at 15525 down 23 or -0.15%.
The SP500 is at 1688 down 1 or -0.08%.
SPY is at 168.75 down 0.12 or -0.07%.
The $RUT is at 1049 down 1.53 or -0.15%.
NASDAQ is at 3586 down 25 or -0.68%.
NASDAQ 100 is at 3045 down 32 or -1.05%.
The longer trend is up, the past months trend is bullish, the past 5 sessions have been bullish and the current bias is bearish.
WTI oil is trading between 108.93 and 107.34 today. The session bias is negative and is currently trading down at 107.94.
Brent crude is trading between 109.18 and 108.44 today. The session bias is negative and is currently trading up at 108.92.
Gold rose from 1285.13 earlier to 1296.76 and is currently trading up at 1294.85.
Dr. Copper is at 3.143 rising from 3.112 earlier.
The US dollar is trading between 82.93 and 82.62 and is currently trading down at 82.77, the bias is currently negative.
** RRR = Risk Reward Ratio
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Written by Gary