Opening Market Commentary For 07-15-2013
Premarkets were up +0.25% and bumped up to +0.50% at the opening and then immediately fell off to a mixed status leaving investors wondering what to do next.
By 10 am the SP500, $COMPX and $RUT had fallen off new historical highs and were trading near Fridays closing numbers on falling volume. Any gaps that were made at the opening were closed by the 15 minute mark as the averages started the all too familiar sideways dance.
Not all is rosy on Wall Street as investors review market strength.
If the worst retail sales number in 12 months doesn't send the S&P to 1,700 nothing will. Because that is precisely the data point we got moments ago when the Census bureau reported June retail sales growth of 0.4%, missing expectations of a 0.8% print and down from a downward revised 0.5%.
However, the only growth in the headline number was thanks to auto and gas sales. Ex autos retail sales were unchanged on expectations of a 0.5% increase, while ex autos and gas the print was down -0.1%, crushing hopes of a +0.4% increase.
Any minute now, however, the Fed's S&P500 trickle down wil, with a 4 year delay, hit the end consumer: the entire Princeton economics department pinky swears.
The first column is what was reported this morning. The second is what was expected by economists and the third is the last report.
The RRR** was narrow at the opening bell today as it has been in five past sessions. This continuing trend of low volume and narrow trading sessions makes predictions of session movements nearly impossible, thus making trading futile and unprofitable.
It is too late to jump in to catch the highs assuming the markets are going to melt up higher, safely anyway. Traders need to be especially cautious how close you set your stops as there have been several corrections that unnecessarily wiped out a lot of investment profits. As for shorting, it still may be too early to start picking out your best candidates, but it never hurts to be prepared.
As long as market volume remains light, and it have been falling each progressive session, or the trading range is narrow, one can expect successful, or at least profitable, trading to remain elusive.
Correctly 'guessing', of course, is the tricky part of the successful trading equation. Any trades today will probably end up on the meager side of profitability if you are lucky as most trades have been less than optimal during the past several years.
I also have continuing issues with some pundits, writing continually, that there are good setups for day trading. Best Stock Market Indicator Ever: At 92% Rises From 85% Last Week and Secondaries Confirm "Tradable" from Negative. This might be true, but still above ~50% where I think it should be! Hard to believe and challenging to deal with considering 'not so good' current events.
There is a wedge between perception and reality that has been going on for some time now where the reality doesn't match this continued bull run.
The DOW at 10:15 is at 15471 up 7 or 0.04%.
The SP500 is at 1681 up 0.71 or 0.05%.
SPY is at 168.03 up 0.50 or 0.30%.
The $RUT is at 1040 up 4 or 0.36%.
NASDAQ is at 3600 up 0.42 or 0.01%.
NASDAQ 100 is at 3076 down 3 or -0.09%.
The longer trend is up, the past months trend is bullish, the past 5 sessions have been bullish and the current bias is sideways.
WTI oil is trading between 106.17 and 104.30 today. The session bias is bullish and is currently trading up at 105.57. (Gap at 106.17)
Brent crude is trading between 109.10 and 107.12 today. The session bias is bullish to neutral and is currently trading up at 107.91. (Gap at 109.06)
Gold fell from 1293.69 earlier to 1273.32 and is currently trading down at 1284.55.
Dr. Copper is at 3.141 fell from 3.168 earlier.
The US dollar is trading between 83.62 and 83.03 and is currently trading down at 83.27, the bias is currently bearish.
** RRR = Risk Reward Ratio
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Written by Gary