July 9th, 2013
in Gary's blogging
Opening Market Commentary For 07-09-2013
Markets blasted off from the opening bell with $RUT once again setting new historical highs. Almost every major indice gaped at the opening creating a bearish scenario for later trading. Volume was mostly red and moderate after the first 5 minutes setting the indicators to a mildly bearish outlook.
By 10:00 the averages were melting off their highs and heading towards yesterday closing numbers. We may have reached highs as investors once again sit on their hands waiting for further directions.
Leavitt has summed up my sentiments relatively accurately. Except for trading for smaller gains. Too much money has to be put on the table to make the trade profitable.
The market moved up yesterday but the indexes closed off their highs. The bears are so desperate. Once again they are utterly frustrated. The market was supposed to bounce back up to a significant level – be it a previous support level, a key moving average, a key Fib retracement, something – and then drop. Instead the market has kept going and going.
And the bears keep making excuses. They’ll cite weak Volume, it’s summer, the Fed this, China that. And here we are with the Russell sitting at an all-time high (on a closing basis), and many other indexes having recaptured their post-FOMC losses.
. . . I think rallies will continue to get sold and dips will continue to get bought, and two months from now the market will be sitting in exactly the same spot.
Those who keep expectations in check by shooting for smaller and quicker gains will do fine. Those who try holding for weeks in an attempt to nail bigger moves will give profits back again and again. And of course brokerages will collect a toll on every trade.
The continuing trend of low volume and narrow trading sessions makes predictions of session movements nearly impossible, thus making trading futile and unprofitable.
As of right now, it is too late to jump in to catch the highs, safely anyway. Traders need to be especially cautious how close you set your stops as we have seen lately several corrections that unnecessarily wiped out a lot of investment profits. As for shorting, it still may be too early to start picking out your best candidates, but I feel you will not have to wait much longer.
The RRR** has been wider on some volatile sessions lately, unfortunately a lot of guessing remains when the ranges are tight. Correctly 'guessing', of course, is the tricky part of the successful trading equation.
I continue to have issues with some pundits stating that there still are good setups for day trading. Best Stock Market Indicator Ever: At 85% Rises From 81% Last Week and Secondaries Also Slip From Confirm "Tradable" to Negative. This might be true, but still above ~60% where I think it should be! Hard to believe and challenging to deal with considering 'not so good' current events. However, according to this system, the market is now Un-tradable.
There is a wedge between perception and reality that has been going on for some time now where the reality doesn't match this continued bull run.
Swing trading is also at your own risk for all the reasons mentioned above although guessing overnight trades would have been most profitable over the past year.
The DOW at 10:15 is at 15274 up 50 or 0.33%.
The SP500 is at 1646 up 6 or 0.37%.
SPY is at 164.57 up 0.63 or 0.37%.
The $RUT is at 1012.13 up 3 or 0.29%.
NASDAQ is at 3489 up 4 or 0.12%.
NASDAQ 100 is at 2970 up 4 or 0.13%.
The longer trend is up, the past months trend is bullish, the past 5 sessions have been bullish and the current bias is negative.
WTI oil is trading between 102.30 and 103.39 today. The session bias is mixed and is currently trading up at 103.11.
Brent crude is trading between 106.87 and 107.52 today. The session bias is mixed and is currently trading down at 107.47.
Gold rose from 1232.19 earlier to 1258.72 and is currently trading down at 1250.75.
Dr. Copper is at 3.051 falling from 3.115 earlier.
The US dollar is trading between 84.31 and 84.72 and is currently trading up at 84.72, the bias is currently bullish.
** RRR = Risk Reward Ratio
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Written by Gary