June 17th, 2013
in Gary's blogging
Opening Market Commentary For 06-17-2013
Markets gaped up at the opening but under low to moderate volume indicating to me that this rise is not sustainable. Also were gaps made during the opening minutes which are usually filled within days if not hours.
Financial were not bad, with manufacturing and housing up and no bad news over the weekend. I suspect today will be an up day.
The RRR** has was narrow at the opening bell today and it doesn't look like it is going to expand any in today's session. It has been like this for the past several months, over a year actually, and it looks like it is going to be this way all week, like last week. This continuing trend of low volume and narrow trading sessions makes predictions of session movements nearly impossible, thus making trading futile and unprofitable.
As of right now, it is too late to jump in to catch the highs, safely anyway. Traders need to be especially cautious how close you set your stops as we have seen lately several corrections that unnecessarily wiped out a lot of investment profits. As for shorting, it still may be too early to start picking out your best candidates, but I feel you will not have to wait much longer.
As long as market volume remains light or the trading range is narrow, one can expect successful, or at least profitable, trading to remain elusive. The RRR** has been wider on some volatile sessions lately and is expected to become more so as 2013 enters the second quarter, unfortunately a lot of guessing remains.
Correctly 'guessing', of course, is the tricky part of the successful trading equation. Any trades today will probably end up on the meager side of profitability if you are lucky as most trades have been less than optimal during the past several years.
I also have continuing issues with some pundits, writing continually, that there are good setups for day trading. Best Stock Market Indicator Ever: At 90% Slips From 93% Last Week and Secondaries Confirm "Tradable" This might be true, but still above ~60% where I think it should be! Hard to believe and challenging to deal with considering 'not so good' current events. There is a wedge between perception and reality going on right now where the reality doesn't match this bull run.
The trading range has been so narrow that way too much money has to be put on the table just to get back meager gains. Do not fall into the trap of money burning a hole in your pocket, sit tight better days are coming. I keep hoping for increasing volumes to signal improved trading.
Swing trading is also at your own risk for all the reasons mentioned above although guessing overnight trades would have been most profitable over the past year. Again, guessing where the market is going to be tomorrow or next week, at this time anyway, can be a foolish and costly endeavor.
The DOW at 10:15 is at 15236 up 164 or 1.09%.
The SP500 is at 1642 up 16 or 0.99%.
SPY is at 164.81 up 1.64 or 1.01%.
The $RUT is at 990.45 up 9 or 0.92%.
NASDAQ is at 3462 up 38 or 1.12%.
NASDAQ 100 is at 2981 up 37 or 1.25%.
The longer trend is up, the past months trend is bullish, the past 5 sessions have been neutral and the current bias is positive.
WTI oil is trading between 97.61 and 98.94 today. The session bias is positive and is currently trading sideways at 98.47.
Brent crude is trading between 105.42 and 106.65 today. The session bias is positive and is currently trading sideways at 106.25.
Gold fell from 1391.35 earlier to 1380.17 and is currently trading down at 1383.25.
Dr. Copper is at 3.205 falling from 3.237 earlier.
The US dollar is trading between 81.02 and 80.76 and is currently trading down at 80.92, the bias is currently negative.
** RRR = Risk Reward Ratio
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Written by Gary