June 7th, 2013
in Gary's blogging
Opening Market Commentary For 06-07-2013
Premarkets were up indicating a opening rise in face of an increase in the unemployment rate and not surprising in light of previous ignoring of not-so-good news.
Markets opened up some +0.25% to +0.50% in the green, paused and by 10 am were melting up like nothing had happened. The uninspiring moderate volume is telling, be careful.
Place your bets if you are brave enough, but I suspect many are going to be on the wrong side.
I still see where technically the markets could move up again and make some newer highs, but I also see the prevailing weakness in this house of cards that Ben Bernanke has built. My take is to sit back, monitor the longs you have remaining and be prepared to cut your losses.
Leavitt mentioned yesterday, “the reaction to the employment numbers is more important and telling than the numbers themselves”. The initial knee-jerk reaction was up, then cooled, then up again and I am not going to bet on this one.
Here are the employment numbers from this morning.
Unemployment rate: 7.6% (was 7.5% last month).
Nonfarm payrolls: +175K.
average workweek: 34.5 (unchanged)
hourly wages: up 1 cent to $23.89
March raised from 138K to 142K.
April was lowered from 165K to 149K.
The RRR** has was narrow at the opening bell today and it doesn't look like it is going to expand any in today's session.
As of right now, it is too late to safely jump in to catch the highs as there may be some and maybe not. Traders also need to be especially cautious how close you set your stops as we have seen lately several corrections that unnecessarily wiped out a lot of investment profits. As for shorting, it still may be too early to start picking out your best candidates, but I feel you will not have to wait much longer.
Any trades today will probably end up on the meager side of profitability if you are lucky as most trades have been less than optimal during the past several years.
The trading range has been so narrow lately that way too much money has to be put on the table just to get back meager gains. Again, guessing where the market is going to be tomorrow or next week, at this time anyway, can be a foolish and costly endeavor.
The DOW at 10:15 is at 15192 up 154 or 1.02%.
The SP500 is at 1637 up 14 or 0.89%.
SPY is at 164.20 up 1.50 or 0.94%.
The $RUT is at 984.80 up 5 or 0.55%.
NASDAQ is at 3450 up 27 or 0.79%.
NASDAQ 100 is at 2975 up 25 or 0.84%.
The longer trend is up, the past months trend is bullish, the past 5 sessions have been negative and the current bias is positive.
WTI oil is trading between 93.76 and 95.78 today. The session bias is bulish and is currently trading up at 95.57.
Brent crude is trading between 102.90 and 104.51 today. The session bias is bullish and is currently trading up at 104.38.
Gold fell from 1416.84 earlier to 1380.74 and is currently trading down at 1385.45.
Dr. Copper is at 3.287 fell from 3.342 earlier.
The US dollar is trading between 81.08 and 81.79 and is currently trading down at 81.66, the bias is currently neutral to bullish.
** RRR = Risk Reward Ratio
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Written by Gary