June 6th, 2013
in Gary's blogging
Opening Market Commentary For 06-06-2013
Premarkets were subdued until 8:45 am where the SP500 futures took an 8 point dive after melting up modestly from yesterday's fall. The initial jobless claims rose 1K while the other reports were of a low importance and didn't seem to move the futures one way or another.
The opening was interesting as the 'dippers' started moving in and buying. By 10 am we witnessed the largest BTFD green volume in many months and it melted the markets up fractionally but slowed to a trickle as the averages melt downward.
The ECB cut growth forecasts for 2013 and raising them for 2014 which would be expected in trying to show the 'good' side of things as financial academicians usually do. Personally, I don't put much faith in anything they say lately.
Draghi said this morning that “the economy to recover at subdued pace”. What he really wanted to say is that he 'hopes' it will recover, but doesn't really have a clue.
The RRR** has was narrow at the opening bell today and will probably get wider today, but not enough to be on the safe side of a trade. Yesterday's session was better than usual but most of the breath occurred in the large caps. Today, much of the daily expected width occurred during the pre-trading hours making a safe trading bet elusive.
As for shorting, it still may be too early to start picking out your best candidates, but I feel you will not have to wait much longer.
Volatility has been much better lately, but overall volumes have not reached the point where investors can jump in and out safely, unfortunately a lot of guessing remains. The trading range has been so narrow that way too much money has to be put on the table just to get back meager gains.
Correctly 'guessing', of course, is the tricky part of the successful trading equation. Any trades today will probably end up on the meager side of profitability if you are lucky as most trades have been less than optimal during the past several years.
I also have continuing issues with some pundits, writing continually, that there are good setups for day trading. Best Stock Market Indicator Ever: Slips To 93% Down From 95% and Secondaries Confirm "Tradable" This might be true, but still above ~60% where I think it should be!
Hard to believe and challenging to deal with considering 'not so good' current events. There is a wedge between perception and reality going on right now where the reality doesn't match this bull run.
The DOW at 10:15 is at 14970 up 6 or 0.04%.
The SP500 is at 1609 up 1 or 0.05%.
SPY is at 161.42 up 0.16 or 0.10%.
The $RUT is at 971.29 up 3 or 0.32%.
NASDAQ is at 6404 up 2 or 0.07%.
NASDAQ 100 is at 2936 down 2 or -0.02%.
The longer trend is up, the past months trend is bullish, the past 5 sessions have been negative and the current bias is negative.
WTI oil is trading between 93.61 and 94.83 today. The session bias is bullish and is currently trading up at 94.82.
Brent crude is trading between 102.82 and 103.52 today. The session bias is neutral and is currently trading up at 103.47.
Gold rose from 1391.20 earlier to 1406.65 and is currently trading up at 1402.65.
Dr. Copper is at 3.317 falling from 3.395 earlier.
The US dollar is trading between 82.83 and 82.22 and is currently trading down at 82.28, the bias is currently negative.
** RRR = Risk Reward Ratio
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Written by Gary