June 3rd, 2013
in Gary's blogging
Closing Market Commentary For 06-03-2013
The market is in a flux state meaning that anything could happen and probably will in the next day or so. Be alert as this could be the trading opportunity we have been waiting for. The indicators are mixed and this is a good sign mixed in with moderate volume. With the DOW closing up 138 points in the face of terrible financial new is actually good news for trading.
These 2 reads are good and interesting. As mentioned below, do not become complacent.
This is no time to be complacent. Massive economic problems are erupting all over the globe, but most people seem to believe that everything is going to be just fine.
In fact, a whole bunch of recent polls and surveys show that the American people are starting to feel much better about how the U.S. economy is performing.
Unfortunately, the false prosperity that we are currently enjoying is not going to last much longer. Unfortunately, the majority appear to be purposely ignoring the economic horror that is breaking out all over the globe.
With JPY losing 100 and the Nikkei futures trading down to a 19.25% loss from the highs (12815 the dreaded bear-market 20% drop level), a combination of a desperate Japanese 2015 plan for the pension fund to buy more stocks, bad-is-good economic data, and front-running of the now-ubiquitous Tuesday rally provided the ammo for a rally in equities - recovering almost 50% of their post Friday drop losses.
Risk-assets in general correlated extremely closely on the day and while volume was well above average, this was driven by the surge to the downside (not the upswing). Treasuries ended the day unchanged (amid a 12bps range on the day) ending near the low yields (moar QE). VIX snapped above 17.5% (its highest in 6 weeks) before fading back in the ramp to unchanged at 16.25%. Credit tracked stocks closely but was less exuberant in the late-day ramp.
USD weakness (JPY and EUR strength) supported commodities, with gold and silver outperforming on the day (up 1.65% and 2.2% respectively).
The DOW at 4:00 is at 15254 up 138 or 0.92%.
The SP500 is at 1628 up 10 or 0.59%.
SPY is at 164.16 up 0.72 or 0.44%.
The $RUT is at 990.53 up 0.71 or 0.43%.
NASDAQ is at 3465 up 9.46 or 0.27%.
NASDAQ 100 is at 2991 up 9 or 0.30%.
The longer trend is up, the past months trend is bullish, the past 5 sessions have been sideways and the current bias is positive.
WTI oil is trading between 91.37 and 93.53 today. The session bias is bullish and is currently trading down at 93.20.
Brent crude is trading between 99.69 and 102.40 today. The session bias is bullish and is currently trading down at 102.05.
Gold rose from 1384.54 earlier to 1416.00 and is currently trading down at 1410.75.
Dr. Copper is at 3.333 falling from 3.347 earlier.
The US dollar is trading between 83.41 and 82.46 and is currently trading up at 82.72, the bias is currently bearish.
The 500 at the close.
The DOW at the close.
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Written by Gary