May 31st, 2013
in Gary's blogging
Opening Market Commentary For 05-31-2013
Premarkets were down about -0.50% and quickly moved to flat status a few minutes after the opening. There was brief and heavy buying spurt that was the main reason for the averages to melt up in the first half hour of trading.
By 9:55 am the volume, mostly green, had fallen off to moderate levels as the investment community awaited the Chicago PMI. At 10 am the PMI reported in at 58.7 while expecting 50.0. The U of Mich Confidence came in at 84.5 while expecting 83.7, the biggest increase in 30 years, and the third biggest on record and the averages pointed downward. What can I say, except confidence is obviously edging lower and lower.?
The news was good, but investors think otherwise it appears. Be aware, I believe the markets still have some upward push in them. This could be the windup before the averages push upwards again. (But not very far. New highs maybe, but nothing to get really excited about.)
Consumer spending fell 0.2% in April from March, the first decline since May 2012. Economists were expecting an increase of 0.1%. Personal income was unchanged for the month, compared to expectations of a 0.1% advance.
The Institute for Supply Management-Chicago’s PMI gauge jumped to 58.7 in May from 49.0 the month before, whizzing by economists’ forecasts of 50. Readings above 50 point to expansion in the Midwest manufacturing sector, while those below indicate contraction.
A reading on consumer sentiment from Thomson Reuters and the University of Michigan came in at 84.5 in late May, up from 83.7 earlier in the month, and besting economists’ expectations that it would hold steady. The gauge is now at its highest level since July 2007.
The RRR** has was narrow at the opening bell today and it doesn't look like it is going to expand any in today's session. It has been like this for the past several months, over a year actually, and it looks like it is going to be this way all week, like last week. This continuing trend of low volume and narrow trading sessions makes predictions of session movements nearly impossible, thus making trading futile and unprofitable.
The DOW at 10:15 is at 15300 down 24 or -0.17%.
The SP500 is at 1650 down 4 or -0.27%.
SPY is at 165.37 down 0.46 or -0.27%.
The $RUT is at 991.15 down 3 or -0.33%.
NASDAQ is at 3486 down 5 or -0.15%.
NASDAQ 100 is at 3009 down 3 or -0.10%.
The longer trend is up, the past months trend is bullish, the past 5 sessions have been sideways and the current bias is negative.
WTI oil is trading between 93.85 and 92.47 today. The session bias is bearish and is currently trading up at 92.69.
Brent crude is trading between 102.38 and 101.25 today. The session bias is bearish and is currently trading down at 101.39.
Gold fell from 1421.33 earlier to 1393.33 and is currently trading down at 1394.75.
Dr. Copper is at 3.283 falling from 3.330 earlier.
The US dollar is trading between 83.01 and 83.56 and is currently trading up at 83.53, the bias is currently bullish.
** RRR = Risk Reward Ratio
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Written by Gary