May 14th, 2013
in Gary's blogging
Opening Market Commentary For 05-14-2013
Premarkets were mostly flat and churning around yesterday's closing numbers and not giving investors any glimpse into today's session's future.
Markets opened flat on moderate volume and quickly moved up +0.25%. The DOW's gap from yesterday was closed as I said it would be and the averages began an upwards movement albeit jumpy making investors unsure if the markets were going to continue up or down.
By 10 am the gaps from yesterday were closed and now entering a new historical high for the SP500 and maybe the DOW shortly. The only caveat is the volume is falling and that may spell the end of today's rise.
Good news or bad news Mr. Market doesn't seem to care lately. Before we see a top I would suspect we need to see the small caps hit their highs as they have done in the past. The time for a severe reversal is getting nearer.
U.S. import prices decreased 0.5% in April from March, matching economists’ expectations. Export prices dropped 0.7%, the largest decline since June, and steeper than forecasts of a 0.2% dip
The RRR** has been narrow at the opening bell for the past several months, over a year actually, and it may be this way all week, like last week. This continuing trend makes predictions of session movements nearly impossible making trading futile and unprofitable. As of right now, it is too late to jump in to catch the highs, safely anyway. As for shorting it may be too early to start shorting, but I feel you will not have to wait much longer.
As long as market volume remains light or the trading range is narrow, one can expect successful, or at least profitable, trading to remain elusive. The RRR** has been wider on some volatile sessions lately and is expected to become more so as 2013 enters the second quarter, unfortunately a lot of guessing remains. Correctly 'guessing', of course, is the tricky part of the successful trading equation. Any trades today will probably end up on the meager side of profitability if you are lucky as most trades have been less than optimal during the past several years.
I also have continuing issues with some pundits, writing almost every day, that there are setups for day trading. Best Stock Market Indicator Ever: Rises to 96% up From 92% and Secondaries Confirm "Tradable" This might be true, but still above ~60% where I think it should be! Hard to believe and challenging to deal with considering 'not so good' current events. There is a wedge between perception and reality going on right now where the reality doesn't match this bull run.
The trading range has been so narrow that way too much money has to be put on the table just to get back meager gains. Do not fall into the trap of money burning a hole in your pocket, sit tight better days are coming. I keep hoping for increasing volumes to signal improved trading.
Swing trading is also at your own risk for all the reasons mentioned above although guessing overnight trades would have been most profitable over the past year. Again, guessing where the market is going to be tomorrow or next week, at this time anyway, can be a foolish and costly endeavor.
The DOW at 10:15 is at 15132 up 40 or 0.27%.
The SP500 is at 1641 up 7 or 0.46%.
SPY is at 164.35 up 0.84 or 0.51%.
The $RUT is at 979.47 up 5 or 0.58%.
NASDAQ is at 3453 up 14 or 0.41%.
NASDAQ 100 is at 2991 up 9 or 0.31%.
The longer trend is up, the past months trend is bullish, the past 5 sessions have been bullish and the current bias is bullish.
WTI oil is trading between 95.96 and 94.50 today. The session bias is bearish to neutral and is currently trading up at 94.98.
Brent crude is trading between 102.93 and 101.92 today. The session bias is bearish to neutral and is currently trading up at 102.25.
Gold fell from 1441.83 earlier to 1420.38 and is currently trading up at 1433.35.
Dr. Copper is at 3.294 falling from 3.378 earlier.
The US dollar is trading between 83.05 and 83.52 and is currently trading up at 83.40, the bias is currently bullish.
** RRR = Risk Reward Ratio
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Written by Gary