May 8th, 2013
in Gary's blogging
Opening Market Commentary For 05-08-2013
Premarkets were down about 0.10% this morning with sparse World news to contribute to moving the averages.
Markets opened down as projected by the futures but by the 15 minute mark started to melt upwards with several heavy spurts of red and green volume. The SP500 made a new high by 10 am while the DOW and $RUT remained in the red (-0.10%) making this a mixed session and one that I wouldn't care to play. Is the markets going to continue to rise or what?
There are so many conflicting signals confronting investors right now as to make any investing plans confusing.
The RRR** has been narrow at the opening bell for the past several months, over a year actually, and it looks like it is going to be this way all week, like last week. This continuing trend makes predictions of session movements nearly impossible making trading futile and unprofitable. As of right now, it is too late to jump in to catch the highs, safely anyway. As for shorting it may be too early to start shorting, but I feel you will not have to wait much longer.
As long as market volume remains light or the trading range is narrow, one can expect successful, or at least profitable, trading to remain elusive. The RRR** has been wider on some volatile sessions lately and is expected to become more so as 2013 enters the second quarter, unfortunately a lot of guessing remains. Correctly 'guessing', of course, is the tricky part of the successful trading equation. Any trades today will probably end up on the meager side of profitability if you are lucky as most trades have been less than optimal during the past several years.
I also have continuing issues with some pundits, writing almost every day, that there are setups for day trading. Best Stock Market Indicator Ever: Rises to 92% up From 87% and Secondaries Confirm "Tradable" This might be true, but still above 60% where I think it should be! Hard to believe and challenging to deal with considering 'not so good' current events. There is a wedge between perception and reality going on right now where the reality doesn't match this bull run.
The trading range has been so narrow that way too much money has to be put on the table just to get back meager gains. Do not fall into the trap of money burning a hole in your pocket, sit tight better days are coming. I keep hoping for increasing volumes to signal improved trading.
Swing trading is also at your own risk for all the reasons mentioned above although guessing overnight trades would have been most profitable over the past year. Again, guessing where the market is going to be tomorrow or next week, at this time anyway, can be a foolish and costly endeavor.
The DOW at 10:15 is at 15046 down 10 or -0.07%.
The SP500 is at 1627 up 1 or 0.07%.
SPY is at 162.79 up 0.20 or 0.12%.
The $RUT is at 966.35 down 1.47 or -0.15%.
NASDAQ is at 3402 up 5 or 0.16%.
NASDAQ 100 is at 2961 up 8 or 0.28%. (A lot of analysts are currently watching the 100 for a heads and shoulder formation.)
The longer trend is up, the past months trend is bullish, the past 5 sessions have been bulish and the current bias is positive.
WTI oil is trading between 95.24 and 96.52 today. The session bias is bullish and is currently trading down at 96.28.
Brent crude is trading between 103.55 and 104.77 today. The session bias is bulish and is currently trading down at 104.64.
Gold rose from 1449.42 earlier to 1469.17 and is currently trading down at 1467.65.
Dr. Copper is at 3.394 rising from 3.291 earlier.
The US dollar is trading between 82.40 and 81.91 and is currently trading down at 91.97, the bias is currently bearish.
** RRR = Risk Reward Ratio
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Written by Gary