May 3rd, 2013
in Gary's blogging
Closing Market Commentary For 05-03-2013
A lot of gaps were made in today's meteoric rise and that almost insures a retrace to the 1586 level for the SP500 in the sessions to come. The question is, 'Do you feel lucky' in your guesswork?
Markets closed near the afternoon highs like yesterday, but I do not feel the market is rip for another advance, just yet. There was some heavy profit taking towards the closing minutes which will, by itself, not have an impact on Monday.
Required reading for the day.
Why A Stock Market Bubble Is Forming Right Now
. . . with frenetically rising stock prices in the face of simultaneously deteriorating macro and micro fundamentals, two questions are begged: First, what is driving the rise in stock prices represented in broad indices such as the S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average and Nasdaq?
Presently, systemic liquidity is well above 75% of GDP, versus a normalized level that should probably be around 55%. This implies that "excess liquidity" in the US economy in the order of 20% of GDP. This is an utterly unprecedented and dangerous level of systemic liquidity in the context of an economy that has stabilized and is now progressing through an intermediate stage of the business cycle.
The DOW at 4:00 is at 14973 up 142 or 0.96%.
The SP500 is at 1614 up 17 or 1.05%.
SPY is at 161.37 up 1.64 or 1.02%.
The $RUT is at 954.42 up 15 or 1.55%.
NASDAQ is at 3378 up 38 or 1.14%.
NASDAQ 100 is at 2944 up 33 or 1.15%. (A lot of analysts are currently watching the 100 for a heads and shoulder formation.)
The longer trend is up, the past months trend is bullish, the past 5 sessions have been bullish and the current bias is neutral to bullish.
This morning gold prices pulled back while WTI crude-oil futures surged 1.45 after better-than-expected U.S. jobs data but pulled back by the 9:30 opening.
WTI oil is trading between 93.05 and 96.00 today. The session bias is bullish and is currently trading up at 95.54.
Brent crude is trading between 101.81 and 104.89 today. The session bias is bullish and is currently trading down at 104.12.
Gold fell from 1487.39 earlier to 1457.57 and is currently trading up at 1468.45.
Dr. Copper is at 3.309 up from 3.118 earlier.
The US dollar is trading between 81.93 and 82.58 and is currently trading up at 82.17, the bias is currently neutral to bullish.
The 500 at the close.
The DOW at the close.
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Written by Gary