May 1st, 2013
in Gary's blogging
Opening Market Commentary For 05-01-2013
Premarkets were in the green (+0.05%) and slowly drifted down towards the opening bell. The 8:55 am US April PMI Manufacturing fell to 52.1 from 54.6 in March, while expecting 52.0. The markets opened flat with the DOW dropping -0.40% in the first few minutes. That direction changed by the 15 minute mark on very low volume leaving the indices mixed and flat.
By 10 am the US economic numbers (graph below) were, again, not so good and the averages started to melt down on low to moderate red volume.
Leavitt, below, also believes the market direction is upwards, stay tuned.
Today is Fed day. It’s the day the FOMC targets the overnight rate (the rate at which banks borrow money from each other) and the discount rate (the rate at which banks borrow from the Fed). No changes are expected, but as has been the case the last couple meetings, their statement will be closely read for clues regarding the possible end to their QE operations.
I don’t expect any change. I think the Fed is likely to do too much QE than too little. Besides, they’ve already stated they’re keeping rates low until the unemployment rates drops to 6.5%, and that’s not happening for a while. Commodity prices have perked up a little lately but not enough for inflation to be a real possibility.
What we read this morning.
The first column is what was reported this morning. The second column is what was expected and the third is the last report.
The RRR** has been narrow at the opening bell for the past several months, over a year actually, and it looks like it is going to be this way all week, like last week. This continuing trend makes predictions of session movements nearly impossible making trading futile and unprofitable. As of right now, it is too late to jump in to catch the highs, safely anyway. As for shorting it may be too early to start shorting, but I fell you will not have to wait much longer.
As long as market volume remains light or the trading range is narrow, one can expect successful, or at least profitable, trading to remain elusive. The RRR** has been wider on some volatile sessions lately and is expected to become more so as 2013 enters the second quarter, unfortunately a lot of guessing remains. Correctly 'guessing', of course, is the tricky part of the successful trading equation. Any trades today will probably end up on the meager side of profitability if you are lucky as most trades have been less than optimal during the past several years.
I also have continuing issues with some pundits, writing almost every day, that there are setups for day trading. Best Stock Market Indicator Ever: Rises to 87% up From 84% and Secondaries Confirm "Tradable" This might be true, but still above 75% where I think it should be! Hard to believe and challenging to deal with considering current events. The trading range is so narrow that way too much money has to be put on the table just to get back meager gains. Do not fall into the trap of money burning a hole in your pocket, sit tight better days are coming. I keep hoping for increasing volumes to signal improved trading.
Swing trading is also at your own risk for all the reasons mentioned above although guessing overnight trades would have been most profitable over the past year. Again, guessing where the market is going to be tomorrow or next week, at this time anyway, can be a foolish and costly endeavor.
The DOW at 10:15 is at 14765 down 74 or -0.50%.
The SP500 is at 1588 down 9 or -0.58%.
SPY is at 158.81 down 0.84 or -0.53%.
The $RUT is at 934.65 down 13 or -1.35%.
NASDAQ is at 3310 down 18 or -0.55%.
NASDAQ 100 is at 2878 down 9 or -0.31%. (A lot of analysts are currently watching the 100 for a heads and shoulder formation.)
The longer trend is up, the past months trend is bullish, the past 5 sessions have been bullish and the current bias is bearish.
WTI oil is trading between 93.20 and 90.67 today. The session bias is bearish and is currently trading down at 90.92.
Brent crude is trading between 102.34 and 99.620 today. The session bias is bearish and is currently trading down at 99.72.
Gold fell from 1475.02 earlier to 1446.79 and is currently trading down at 1450.25.
Dr. Copper is at 3.084 falling from 3.186 earlier.
The US dollar is trading between 81.78 and 81.37 and is currently trading up at 81.61, the bias is currently neutral to bullish.
** RRR = Risk Reward Ratio
To contact me with questions, comments or constructive criticism is always encouraged and appreciated:
Written by Gary