April 29th, 2013
in Gary's blogging
Opening Market Commentary For 04-29-2013
Premarkets were up and then declined with the 'not so good' financial reports at 8:30. At 10 am the US pending home sales was down (graph below) and the premarkets showed a slip dip.
At the opening the averages started to melt down but the BTFD dippers took charge and the bulls melted the indices upward with the small caps showing the largest gains near the +75% level. Volume is low to moderate and by 10:15 most of the action was done for the morning. Expect to see sea-saw action for this session with a possible melting upwards because of HFT action.
Morning data is not all that great, but the markets are melting up anyway. Do not expect this to continue.
The first column is what was reported this morning. The second column is what analysts were expecting and the third is the last report.
The RRR** has been narrow at the opening bell for the past several months, over a year actually, and looks to be this way all week again. This continuing trend makes predictions of session movements nearly impossible making trading futile and unprofitable. As of right now, it is too late to jump in to catch the highs and still may be too early to start shorting.
As long as market volume remains light or the trading range is narrow, one can expect successful, or at least profitable, trading to remain elusive. The RRR** has been wider on some volatile sessions lately and is expected to become more so as 2013 enters the second quarter, unfortunately a lot of guessing remains. Correctly 'guessing', of course, is the tricky part of the successful trading equation. Any trades today will probably end up on the meager side of profitability if you are lucky as most trades have been less than optimal during the past several years.
I also have continuing issues with some pundits, writing almost every day, that there are setups for day trading. Best Stock Market Indicator Ever: Rises to 87% up From 84% and Secondaries Confirm "Tradable" This might be true, but still above 75% where I think it should be! Hard to believe and challenging to deal with considering current events. The trading range is so narrow that way too much money has to be put on the table just to get back meager gains. Do not fall into the trap of money burning a hole in your pocket, sit tight better days are coming. I keep hoping for increasing volumes to signal improved trading.
Swing trading is also at your own risk for all the reasons mentioned above although guessing overnight trades would have been most profitable over the past year. Again, guessing where the market is going to be tomorrow or next week, at this time anyway, can be a foolish and costly endeavor.
The DOW at 10:15 is at 14765 up 56 or 0.38%.
The SP500 is at 1590 up 8 or 0.50%.
SPY is at 158.94 up 0.69 or 0.44%.
The $RUT is at 941.79 up 6.52 or 0.70%.
NASDAQ is at 3303 up 24 or 0.73%.
NASDAQ 100 is at 2863 up 23 or 0.80%. (A lot of analysts are currently watching the 100 for a heads and shoulder formation.)
The longer trend is up, the past months trend is bullish, the past 5 sessions have been bullish and the current bias is bullish.
WTI oil is trading between 92.57 and 93.81 today. The session bias is positive and is currently trading up at 93.69.
Brent crude is trading between 102.59 and 103.48 today. The session bias is positive and is currently trading up at 103.47.
Gold fell from 1478.30 earlier to 1462.91 and is currently trading up at 1467.05.
Dr. Copper is at 3.224 rising from 3.159 earlier.
The US dollar is trading between 82.52 and 82.10 and is currently trading up at 82.28, the bias is currently negative.
** RRR = Risk Reward Ratio
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Written by Gary