April 24th, 2013
in Gary's blogging
Opening Market Commentary For 04-24-2013
Premarkets were flat prior to the US durable goods report at 8:30 am. The financial report wasn't good and the futures melted down just a 'tad' again providing little market direction for the opening.
Markets opened flat and slowly melted up to a few points above yesterday's closing numbers all on anemic volume. Investors are obviously being cautious with so many negative calls being made and the closeness of previous tops.
By 10:15 am all of the major indices went into the red on low to moderate volume.
Dailyfx said this morning, “Fair value of SPX Futures price is off 3 points following the sharply disappointing US Durable Goods report.”
So much for the great American CapEx recovery.
[This morning] the Census department released the March Durable Goods report, thanks to which one can lay to rest any hope of a recovery in the US economy, with the headline number printing an absolutely abysmal -5.7%, an epic swing from the +5.7% (revised lower of course to 4.3%) in February, and confirming the recovery is dead and buried.
Although we are confident the propaganda spin is just waiting to be unleashed: after all it is possible that March weather was both too hot and too cold, thereby making the number completely irrelevant - after all it is always the inclement weather's fault when the economy does not act as predicted by some economist's DSGE model of reality and stuff.
The RRR** has been narrow at the opening bell for the past several months, over a year actually, and looks to be this way all week. This continuing trend makes predictions of session movements nearly impossible making trading futile and unprofitable. As of right now, it is too late to jump in (safely) to catch the highs and still may be too early to start shorting.
As long as market volume remains light or the trading range is narrow, one can expect successful, or at least profitable, trading to remain elusive. The RRR** has been wider on some volatile sessions lately and is expected to become more so as 2013 enters the second quarter, unfortunately a lot of guessing remains. Correctly 'guessing', of course, is the tricky part of the successful trading equation. Any trades today will probably end up on the meager side of profitability if you are lucky as most trades have been less than optimal during the past several years.
I also have continuing issues with some pundits, writing almost every day, that there are setups for day trading. Best Stock Market Indicator Ever: Falls to 84% Down From 90% and Secondaries Confirm "Tradable" This might be true, but still above 75%? Hard to believe and challenging to deal with considering current events. The trading range is so narrow that way too much money has to be put on the table just to get back meager gains. Do not fall into the trap of money burning a hole in your pocket, sit tight better days are coming. I keep hoping for increasing volumes to signal improved trading.
Swing trading is also at your own risk for all the reasons mentioned above although guessing overnight trades would have been most profitable over the past year. Again, guessing where the market is going to be tomorrow or next week, at this time anyway, can be a foolish and costly endeavor.
The DOW at 10:15 is at 14696 down 23 or -0.16%.
The SP500 is at 1577 down 1.45 or -0.09%.
SPY is at 157.76 down 0.01 or -0.01%.
The $RUT is at 929.51 up 0.09 or 0.01%.
NASDAQ is at 3259 down 10 or -0.32%.
NASDAQ 100 is at 2826 down 9 or -0.32%. (A lot of analysts are currently watching the 100 for a heads and shoulder formation.)
The longer trend is up, the past months trend is bullish, the past 5 sessions have been bullish and the current bias is negative.
WTI oil is trading between 88.31 and 89.96 today. The session bias is bullish to neutral and is currently trading down at 89.49.
Brent crude is trading between 99.35 and 101.22 today. The session bias is bullish to neutral and is currently trading down at 100.66.
Gold rose from 1408.34 earlier to 1432.70 and is currently trading up at 1429.25.
Dr. Copper is at 3.151 rising from 3.078 earlier.
The US dollar is trading between 82.96 and 83.32 and is currently trading up at 83.16, the bias is currently bullish.
** RRR = Risk Reward Ratio
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Written by Gary