April 18th, 2013
in Gary's blogging
Opening Market Commentary For 04-18-2013
Premarkets were up slightly from yesterday's close but no real hint of direction for today's session. 8:30 am Financial's were ignored by the premarket crowd and the markets opened flat, in the green on anemic volume. The $VIX eased down from it 16.51 closing to 16.32 at the opening bell and by 10 they had blossomed to 16.91.
Approaching 10 am the DOW was down -0.01% and the $RUT was up 0.11% waiting for the 10 o'clock financials. The US Leading Indicators came in at -0.1 to 94.7 lower than the 0.2% expected and the US Philadelphia Fed reported +1.3 while expecting +3.0 and 2.0 from the previous report. Higher Philadelphia Fed Survey figures indicate a positive outlook from manufacturers and the markets reacted negatively dropping the DOW -0.58% and the $RUT to -0.67.
Further signs of a 'slipping' economy as morning profit taking leads the way for investors jumping ship. My proprietary indicators are showing some bullishness in the markets and I still think we haven't seen the top just yet. For the swing traders this could be a good point to dip your toes in.
The RRR** has been narrow at the opening bell for the past several months, over a year actually, and was moderately wide today. We need to watch any continuing low volume trend because it makes predictions of session movements nearly impossible therefore making trading futile and unprofitable. As of right now, it is not too late to jump in to catch the highs but may be too early to start shorting. This is one of those times where some us would rather sit on the sidelines and watch the blood bath.
As long as market volume remains light or the trading range is narrow, one can expect successful, or at least profitable, trading to remain elusive. The RRR** has been wider on some volatile sessions lately and is expected to become more so as 2013 enters the second quarter, unfortunately a lot of guessing remains. Correctly 'guessing', of course, is the tricky part of the successful trading equation. Any trades today will probably end up on the meager side of profitability if you are lucky as most trades have been less than optimal during the past several years.
I also have continuing issues with some pundits, writing almost every day, that there are setups for day trading. Best Stock Market Indicator Ever: Rises to 90% and Secondaries Confirm "Tradable" This might be true (and surprising this week anyway), but challenging to deal with considering current events. The trading range is so narrow that way too much money has to be put on the table just to get back meager gains. Do not fall into the trap of money burning a hole in your pocket, sit tight better days are coming. I keep hoping for increasing volumes to signal improved trading.
Swing trading is also at your own risk for all the reasons mentioned above although guessing overnight trades would have been most profitable over the past year. Again, guessing where the market is going to be tomorrow or next week, at this time anyway, can be a foolish and costly endeavor.
The DOW at 10:15 is at 14545 down 75 or -0.51%.
The SP500 is at 1542 down 9 or -0.59%.
SPY is at 154.22 down 1 or -0.58%.
The $RUT is at 901.86 down 5 or -0.55%.
NASDAQ is at 3178 down 26 or -0.82%.
NASDAQ 100 is at 2755 down 26 or -0.95%. (A lot of analysts are currently watching the 100.)
The longer trend is up, the past months trend is bullish, the past 5 sessions have been bearish and the current bias is negative.
WTI oil is trading between 88.14 and 86.35 today. The session bias is negative and is currently trading down at 86.57.
Brent crude is trading between 99.33 and 97.58 today. The session bias is negative and is currently trading down at 97.89.
Gold rose from 1338.65 earlier to 1401.59 and is currently trading down at 1390.76.
Dr. Copper is at 3.16 falling from 3.19 earlier.
The US dollar is trading between 82.74 and 82.54 and is currently trading up at 82.72, the bias is currently bullish.
** RRR = Risk Reward Ratio
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Written by Gary