April 17th, 2013
in Gary's blogging
Closing Market Commentary For 04-17-2013
The Beige Book says everything is O.K., slow but O.K. And the markets did absolutely NOTHING. That should tell you something. The large gap the midcap S&P 400 closed a significant gap made on 3-5-13 suggesting the path is clear moving up again. Volume has been consistent throughout the afternoon session both red and green also suggesting that the tug-o-war isn't finished. The SP500 support was tested and failed while the equivalent support of the DOW was never reached. Many, many conflicting signals going on without any directions.
The market closed down but up from the morning lows. Most of the afternoon was a tight and narrow zone of trading mostly sideways with a hint of an upward movement.
My proprietary indicators closed with a 4 digit bear signal. That doesn't mean much by itself and has to be thrown in with the other 'tea leaves'. To me, things are not as rosy as many bulls want you to think.
Cyprus and the European Union are still very much in the news as gold smarts from its hit. I believe we haven't seen the 'big fall' yet as testing of the recent highs looks promising. Is today a good day to do a little swing trading – ummm, maybe, but not for me as I am way to conservative.
This article about the Hindenberg Omen Issues Warning I wonder if it is already happening.
Here is a piece that says the economy is getting worse.
Back in 2010, Goldman's Jan Hatzius, fresh on the heels of QE2, committed rookie Economist mistake 101, and mistook a centrally-planned market response to what then was a record liquidity infusion, for an improvement in the economy (a move we appropriately mocked at the time, as it was quite clear that the Fed's intervention meant the economy was getting worse not better).
It took him about 4 months to realize the folly of his ways and realize no recovery for the US or anyone else was on the horizon.
He then wised up for a couple of years until some time in December he did the very same mistake again, and once again jumped the shark, forecasting an improvement to the US economy in 2013, albeit in the second half (after all nobody want to predict an improvement in the immediate future: they will be proven wrong very soon) based on consumer strength when in reality the only "reaction function" was that of the market to the Fed's QE4 (or is it 5, and does it even matter any more?).
The US Government is spouting the same ol', same ol' the the following article below. “The market's reaction is nothing - reflecting the value of the report's content.” The problem is that we, the common folk, can see and feel for ourselves that everything IS NOT O.K. Nor is it improving, regardless what our esteemed leaders tell us. The stock market doesn't buy this lackadaisical story and neither do we.
@zerohedge: Egan Jones downgrades Germany from A+ to A
The DOW at 4:00 is at 14618 down 138 or -0.94%.
The SP500 is at 1552 down 22 or -1.43%. (Critical support at 1544)
SPY is at 155.23 down 2 or -1.37%.
The $RUT is at 906.80 down 16.50 or -1.79%.
NASDAQ is at 3204 down 60 or -1.84%.
NASDAQ 100 is at 2782 down 56 or -1.99%. (A lot of analysts are currently watching the 100.)
The longer trend is up, the past months trend is bullish, the past 5 sessions have been neutral to bearish and the current bias is bearish.
WTI oil is trading between 89.00 and 86.75 today. The session bias is bearish and is currently trading down at 86.87.
Brent crude is trading between 100.52 and 97.80 today. The session bias is bearish and is currently trading down at 97.93.
Gold rose from 1320.57 earlier to 1393.15 and is currently trading down at 1370.09.
Dr. Copper is at 3.19 falling from 3.32 earlier.
The US dollar is trading between 81.78 and 82.81 and is currently trading up at 82.75, the bias is currently bullish.
The 500 at the close.
The DOW at the close.
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Written by Gary