April 10th, 2013
in Gary's blogging
Opening Market Commentary For 04-10-2013
Premarkets were up early this morning and mostly fluctuated from flat to 0.30% until the opening.
Markets opened up and strong and by 10:30 new highs were made with no decline in sight.
This is a short morning commentary – more later.
Highlights from the pre-leaked minutes, which are along the lines of previous releases, in which there is a hint of an early QE tapering and halt by year end.
Algos unsure if this means QE may be ending. The answer, of course, is no. But the Fed is doing everything to gauge market impact to increasingly more ominous and harsh language.
The RRR** has been narrow at the opening bell for the past several months, over a year actually, and has continued the trend again today. This continuing trend makes predictions of session movements nearly impossible making trading futile and unprofitable. As of right now, it is too late to jump in to catch the highs and still may be too early to start shorting.
As long as market volume remains light or the trading range is narrow, one can expect successful, or at least profitable, trading to remain elusive. The RRR** has been wider on some volatile sessions lately and is expected to become more so as 2013 enters the second quarter, unfortunately a lot of guessing remains. Correctly 'guessing', of course, is the tricky part of the successful trading equation. Any trades today will probably end up on the meager side of profitability if you are lucky as most trades have been less than optimal during the past several years.
I also have continuing issues with some pundits, writing almost every day, that there are setups for day trading. Best Stock Market Indicator Ever: Unchanged at 89% and Secondaries Confirm "Tradable" This might be true, but challenging to deal with. The trading range is so narrow that way too much money has to be put on the table just to get back meager gains. Do not fall into the trap of money burning a hole in your pocket, sit tight better days are coming. I keep hoping for increasing volumes to signal improved trading.
Swing trading is also at your own risk for all the reasons mentioned above although guessing overnight trades would have been most profitable over the past year. Again, guessing where the market is going to be tomorrow or next week, at this time anyway, can be a foolish and costly endeavor.
The DOW at 10:30 is at 14762 up 89 or 0.61%.
The SP500 is at 1580 up 11 or 0.72%.
SPY is at 157.93 up 1 or 0.74%.
The $RUT is at 936.60 up 7 or 0.78%.
NASDAQ is at 3273 up 35 or 1.08%.
NASDAQ 100 is at 2839 up 35 or 1.24%. (A lot of analysts are currently watching the 100.)
The longer trend is up, the past months trend is bullish, the past 5 sessions have been bearish and the current bias is down.
WTI oil is trading between 94.15 and 93.41 today. The session bias is bearish and is currently trading down at 93.81.
Brent crude is trading between 106.39 and 105.52 today. The session bias is bearish and is currently trading down at 105.73.
Gold fell from 1588.45 earlier to 1571.45 and is currently trading down at 1571.84.
Dr. Copper is at 3.41 up from 3.36 earlier.
The US dollar is trading between 82.70 and 82.38 and is currently trading up at 82.54, the bias is currently bullish.
** RRR = Risk Reward Ratio
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Written by Gary