April 5th, 2013
in Gary's blogging
Opening Market Commentary For 04-05-2013
The 8 am premarket was down with the SP500 off 9 points which immediately made me wonder (again) who is getting advance notice of the US financial reporting. Then at 8:30 when the NFP turned in a really bad report the 500 futures ended up down 19 points.
As expected the markets opened lower as the DOW dipped to -130.00 and by 10 am it was off -166. I do not expect the averages to move a lot lower today as the action appears to be over as the volume is starting to fall off rapidly. Because of the mom and pop investors who left the markets back in 2009, the big funds do not have reason to jump ship, after all where are they going to go?
Well, don't say I didn't tell you so. As the volume dries up I would expect the HFT algo 'oump and dump' computers to melt the averages back up today.
Things just keep getting worse for the American worker . . . the number of people not in the labor force which in March soared by a massive 663,000 to a record 90 million Americans who are no longer even looking for work. . .
Today, we got the laughable news that the unemployment rate declined even as those not in the labor force grew by over 660,000, while the total civilian non-institutional population grew by just 167,000 to 244,995, meaning the actual labor force declined by 496,000. . .
the real unemployment chart shows, the economy has not improved by one bit since 2009. . . The kneejerk response to this morning's dismal NFP print was significant disappointment. . .
So much for "open-ended QE driven recovery". . . This was the biggest miss to expectations since December 2009 and the worst print since June 2012. The unemployment rate declined to 7.6%, but this was due entirely to the collapse in the labor force participation rate, which declined by 20 bps to 63.3%, a new 30 year low.
People Not In Labor Force Soar By 663,000 To 90 Million, Labor Force Participation Rate At 1979 Levels
The first column is what was reported today at 8:30 am. The second is what was expected and the third is the last report.
The RRR** has been narrow at the opening bell for the past several months but this morning it was very wide, but to have gotten the full Monty, you would have had to gone short at the close yesterday. We will have to see what the volatile action has during trading hours today.
The DOW at 10:15 is at 14446 down 160 or -1.12%.
The SP500 is at 1540 down 20 or -1.27%.
SPY is at 153.88 down 1.98 or -1.27%.
The $RUT is at 912.45 down 13.23 or -1.43%.
NASDAQ is at 3175 down 49 or -1.50%.
The longer trend is up, the past months trend is bullish, the past 5 sessions have been up trending to bearish and the current bias is down – way down.
WTI oil is trading between 97.47 and 91.95 today. The session bias is bearish and is currently trading down at 92.45.
Brent crude is trading between 106.42 and 104.80 today. The session bias is bearish and is currently trading down at 105.00.
Gold rose from 1550.55 earlier to 1563.78 and is currently trading up at 1566.75.
Dr. Copper is at 3.35 down from 3.37 earlier.
The US dollar is trading between 83.00 and 82.40 and is currently trading down at 82.58, the bias is currently negative.
** RRR = Risk Reward Ratio
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Written by Gary