March 28th, 2013
in Gary's blogging
Closing Market Commentary For 03-28-2013
New highs were made as the SP500 gained 0.04% and the DOW rose 51 points to capture the best 1st quarter sense 1998 as volume fell – what gives? Tomorrow is closed and for those who are long let's hope the weekend news is good.
By 4 pm a lot of traders and investors were starting to get sweaty hands and feet and some just shrugged their shoulders and said, “See I told you so”.
Next week, by my standards is going to be an interesting one.
The S&P 500 ticked up above its record closing high of 1565.15 set in October 2007, joining the Dow Jones Industrial Average in chartering new territory in the latest sign Wall Street is putting the financial crisis behind it.
The Institute for Supply Management-Chicago’s PMI gauge fell to 52.4 in March from 56.8 in February, missing the 56.5 reading economists forecast. Readings above 50 point to expansion in the Midwest manufacturing sector, while those below indicate contraction.
Market recap: Stocks posted modest gains on the final day of a record smashing quarter, as the S&P ended above its all-time closing high and the Dow's 11% gain was its best Q1 since 1998. Stocks stumbled briefly when the Chicago PMI fell short, but bargain hunters quickly swooped in. But in a warning sign, defensive shares such as utilities and healthcare led the pack, as they have for much of the rally
Correctly 'guessing', of course, is the tricky part of the successful trading equation. Any trades today will probably end up on the meager side of profitability if you are lucky as most trades have been less than optimal during the past several years.
I also have continuing issues with some pundits, writing almost every day, that there are setups for day trading. Best Stock Market Indicator Ever: Fell to 88% Down From 91% and Secondaries Confirm "Tradable" This might be true (and difficult to believe), but challenging to deal with. The trading range is so narrow that way too much money has to be put on the table just to get back meager gains.
Swing trading is also at your own risk for all the reasons mentioned above although guessing overnight trades would have been most profitable over the past year. Again, guessing where the market is going to be tomorrow or next week, at this time anyway, can be a foolish and costly endeavor.
The DOW at 4:00 is at 14578 up 52 or 0.36%.
The SP500 is at 1569 up 6 or 0.41%.
SPY is at 156.67 up 0.48 or 0.31%.
The $RUT is at 951.54 up 1.30 or 0,14%.
NASDAQ is at 3267 up 11 or 0.34%.
The longer trend is up, the past months trend is bullish, the past 5 sessions have been neutral and the current bias is up.
WTI oil is trading between 95.50 and 97.21 today. The session bias is bullish and is currently trading up at 97.17.
Brent crude is trading between 109.88 and 108.70 today. The session bias is bullish and is currently trading up at 109.76.
Gold fell from 1606.90 earlier to 1594.20 and is currently trading down at 1595.92.
Dr. Copper is at 3.40 down from 3.46 earlier.
The US dollar is trading between 83.46 and 83.01 and is currently trading up at 83.16, the bias is currently bearish.
The 500 at the close.
The DOW at the close.
** RRR = Risk Reward Ratio
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