March 22nd, 2013
in Gary's blogging
Closing Market Commentary For 03-22-2013
Low volume ruled the day as the DOW moved up to Wednesday's closing numbers at 11:30 pm and again at 1:30 pm before ending the day at +90. The other major averages did not fare as well as the NASDAQ and $RUT didn't even come close in performing that feat.
At the close there was a brief buying spurt and some profit taking leaving the bears the winner. I can't say this wasn't a good day, which it was, but the low volume tells it all. Seriously, how can a balloon expand when there is no air being pumped in. Hint below.
Hot air! And we all know what happens when it cools. More on the anemic volume.
It's one of those days. US equity markets are levitating [on] extremely thin volume against the trend in every other risk-asset market.
Treasury yields are pushing lower as safety is sought, VIX is bid as protection is sought ahead of the weekend, credit markets are leaking lower (at lows of day), and JPY strength is not helping the carry traders... but then again, none of that matters... we need [more]...because all that matters is a green Dow close for the week.
As long as market volume remains light or the trading range is narrow, one can expect successful, or at least profitable, trading to remain elusive. The RRR** has been wider on some volatile sessions lately and is expected to become more so as 2013 enters the first quarter, but unfortunately a lot of guessing remains. Correctly 'guessing', of course, is the tricky part of the successful trading equation.
I also have continuing issues with some pundits, writing almost every day, that there are setups for day trading. Best Stock Market Indicator Ever: Rises to 91% and Secondaries Confirm "Tradable" This might be true (and difficult to believe), but challenging to deal with. The trading range is so narrow that way too much money has to be put on the table just to get back meager gains. Remember, guessing where the market is going to be tomorrow or next week, at this time anyway, can be a foolish and costly endeavor.
The DOW at 4:00 is at 14512 up 90.54 or 0.63%.
The SP500 is at 1556 up 11 or 0.72%.
SPY is at 155.56 up 1.19 or 0.77%.
The $RUT is at 946.27 up 2.25 or 0.35%.
NASDAQ is at 3245 up 22 or 0.70%.
The longer trend is up, the past months trend is bullish, the past 5 sessions have been neutral and the current bias is up.
WTI oil is trading between 92.30 and 93.90 today. The session bias is bullish and is currently trading up at 93.87.
Brent crude is trading between 105.50 and 107.33 today. The session bias is bullish and is currently trading down at 107.17.
Gold fell from 1515.70 earlier to 1603.37 and is currently trading sideways at 1607.55.
Dr. Copper is at 3.47 rising from 3.44 earlier.
The US dollar is trading between 83.01 and 82.44 and is currently trading down at 82.48, the bias is currently bearish.
The 500 at the close.
The DOW at the close.
** RRR = Risk Reward Ratio
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Written by Gary