March 13th, 2013
in Gary's blogging
Closing Market Commentary For 03-13-2013
The DOW and the 500 didn't make new highs, but came close. The Russell 2000 and SPY DID make new highs, but barely. The SPY started melting down soon after easing up to 156.12 while the $RUT remained close to its high of 944.61. Most of the activity during the later portion of the session appears to be HFT computer related and unusual to see the averages decline.
Markets closed up but flat, directionless and looking tired on low volume.
All the while the market was easing up today my proprietary indicators kept moving down and that is NOT bullish. This is a distinct signal NOT to go long, at least for the short term but not enough to move into the shorts either.
As long as this volume is descending, like it has been doing, one should be cognizant of the dangers of this market collapsing.
The Dow managed its ninth green close in a row - its best in 16 years - and obviously closed at all-time new highs.
The Trannies were the real winner though as they are now up over 4% in March (considerably outperforming the rest of the major indices), and up 29% since mid-November (a 120% annualized return) with no more than a 2.5% retracement in that period.
Four stocks dominated TRAN today JB Hunt, Alaska Air, CH Robinson, and Ryder accounting for half the index's gains. Volume was its lowest of the year (ex President's Day). Average trade size was low.
On the week, financials and energy are the underperformers. Treasury yields spiked on retail sales, dropped on the auction and go out very modestly higher on the day but not confirming the equity exuberance again. FX markets also pointed to a less sanguine view of the world as the USD rallied and EURJPY (carry) provided little support.
VIX held up for most of the day but collapsed into the close back under 12%. Commodities gave back earlier (weaker USD) gains to close at the lows of the day.
The DOW at 4:00 is at 14455 up 5.22 or 0.04%.
The SP500 is at 1554 up 2 or 0.12%.
SPY is at 156.01 up 0.33 or 0.21%.
The $RUT is at 943.90 up 3.64 or 0.39%.
NASDAQ is at 3245 up 2.80 or 0.09%.
The longer trend is up, the past months trend is bullish, the past 5 sessions have been bullish and the current bias is down.
WTI oil is trading between 90.95 and 93.45 today. The session bias is bearish and is currently trading up at 92.42.
Brent crude is trading between 107.22 and 110.17 today. The session bias is bearish and is currently trading down at 107.57.
Gold rose from 1575.85 earlier to 1598.95 and is currently trading down at 1588.04.
Dr. Copper is at 3.53 down from 3.57 earlier.
The US dollar is trading between 82.60 and 83.33 and is currently trading up at 83.19, the bias is currently bullish.
The 500 at the close.
The DOW at the close.
** RRR = Risk Reward Ratio
To contact me with questions, comments or constructive criticism is always encouraged and appreciated:
Written by Gary