March 12th, 2013
in Gary's blogging
Opening Market Commentary For 03-12-2013
Premarkets were down about -0.15% with no new news to report other than the US NFIB small business rated medium in importance was up, but below expectations. The futures did not react to this news.
The markets opened down on slightly better volume than yesterday but the bulls stepped in and kept the averages from falling any further and began trading sideways.
By 10 the markets were mixed and flat with the DOW climbing to new highs. By10:15 the dippers jumped in and melted the averages up where the 500 and the $RUT were also showing new highs with 'spurts' of moderate volume indicating big lot selling and buying.
So we sit, wait and watch the averages melt up higher on low volume.
“I think it's obvious that markets are incredibly complacent, but until we see signs of turn it doesn't make sense to fight 'risk' trend.”
“Dow Jones opens at a fresh record high. In meantime, S&P 500 VIX now at almost-incredible 11.8%.”
The RRR** has been narrow at the opening bell for the past several months, over a year actually, and has continued the trend again today. This continuing trend makes predictions of session movements nearly impossible making trading futile and unprofitable. As of right now, it is too late to jump in to catch the highs and still may be too early to start shorting.
As long as market volume remains light or the trading range is narrow, one can expect successful, or at least profitable, trading to remain elusive. The RRR** has been wider on some volatile sessions lately and is expected to become more so as 2013 enters the first quarter, but unfortunately a lot of guessing remains. Correctly 'guessing', of course, is the tricky part of the successful trading equation. Any trades today will probably end up on the meager side of profitability if you are lucky as most trades have been less than optimal during the past several years.
I also have continuing issues with some pundits, writing almost every day, that there are setups for day trading. Best Stock Market Indicator Ever: Rises to 87% and Secondaries Confirm "Tradable" This might be true (for last week anyway), but difficult to deal with. The trading range is so narrow that way too money has to be put on the table just to get back meager gains. Do not fall into the trap of money burning a hole in your pocket, sit tight better days are coming. I keep hoping for increasing volumes to signal improved trading.
Swing trading is also at your own risk for all the reasons mentioned above although guessing overnight trades would have been most profitable over the past year. Again, guessing where the market is going to be tomorrow or next week, at this time anyway, can be a foolish and costly endeavor.
The DOW at 10:15 is at 14469 up 22 or 0.15%.
The SP500 is at 1555 down 0.52 or -0.03%.
SPY is at 155.98 down 0.05 or -0.03%.
The $RUT is at 941.91 down 0.61 or -0.06%.
NASDAQ is at 3245 down 8 or -0.23%.
The longer trend is up, the past months trend is bullish, the past 5 sessions have been bullish and the current bias is down.
WTI oil is trading between 91.60 and 93.30 today. The session bias is bullish and is currently trading up at 93.27.
Brent crude is trading between 108.64 and 110.15 today. The session bias is bullish and is currently trading sideways at 109.87.
Gold rose from 1576.90 earlier to 1597.75 and is currently trading down at 1593.84.
Dr. Copper is at 3.56 up from 3.50 earlier.
The US dollar is trading between 83.10 and 82.70 and is currently trading down at 82.73, the bias is currently bearish.
** RRR = Risk Reward Ratio
To contact me with questions, comments or constructive criticism is always encouraged and appreciated:
Written by Gary