March 4th, 2013
in Gary's blogging
Closing Market Commentary For 03-04-2013
Markets melted up and closed in the green, but that isn't saying much as the indices are still flat at the close and no trends or previous highs (except the DOW at 14128) were tested along with anemic volume. No news of any consequence and the old problems are still with us. The EU is barely afloat, China is starting to crack and the US financial issues are just beginning to show their influence to the markets.
The WTI oil has fallen below 90 for the first time this year and the US dollar is still in VERY strong 82 cents area. Most pundits see a correction just around the corner and my proprietary indicators are getting more bearish each session.
The RRR** has been narrow at the opening bell for the past several months, over a year actually, and has continued the trend into the closing session. This continuing trend makes predictions of session movements nearly impossible making trading futile and unprofitable. As of right now, it is too late to jump in to catch the highs and still may be too early to start shorting.
As long as market volume remains light or the trading range is narrow, one can expect successful, or at least profitable, trading to remain elusive. The RRR** has been wider on some volatile sessions lately and is expected to become more so as 2013 enters the first quarter, but unfortunately a lot of guessing remains. Correctly 'guessing', of course, is the tricky part of the successful trading equation. Any trades today will probably end up on the meager side of profitability if you are lucky as most trades have been less than optimal during the past several years.
I also have continuing issues with some pundits, writing almost every day, that there are setups for day trading. Best Stock Market Indicator Ever: Rises to 86% and Secondaries Confirm "Tradable" This may be true enough, but difficult to believe, but the trading range is so narrow that way too money has to be put on the table just to get back meager gains. Do not fall into the trap of money burning a hole in your pocket, sit tight better days are coming. I keep hoping for increasing volumes to signal improved trading.
Swing trading is also at your own risk for all the reasons mentioned above although guessing overnight trades would have been most profitable over the past year. Again, guessing where the market is going to be tomorrow or next week, at this time anyway, can be a foolish and costly endeavor.
The DOW at 4:00 is at 14127 up 38 or 0.27 %.
The SP500 is at 1525 up 7 or 0.46 %.
SPY is at 153.00 up 0.88 or 0.58 %.
The $RUT is at 916.68 up 1.957 or 0.21 %.
NASDAQ is at 3182 up 12 or 0.39 %.
The longer trend is up, the past months trend is bullish, the past 5 sessions have been neutral to bearish and the current bias is bullish.
WTI oil is trading between 93.12 and 89.53 this morning. The session bias is negative and is currently trading up at 90.09.
Brent crude is trading between 108.88 and 107.73 this morning. The session bias is negative and is currently trading up at 108.12.
Gold fell from 1587.00 earlier to 1565.10 and is currently trading up at 1573.30.
Dr. Copper is at 3.52 up from 3.48 earlier.
The US dollar is trading between 82.28 and 82.52 and is currently trading down at 82.28, the bias is currently sideways.
The 500 at the close.
The DOW at the close.
** RRR = Risk Reward Ratio
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Written by Gary