February 15th, 2013
in Gary's blogging
Closing Market Commentary For 02-15-2013
Interesting movement for the 500 today. It appears there is a support of some magnitude averaging around 1513. On 2/6 and 2/7 it was a high and on 2/11 it tried to go below 1513 like today and was soundly bounced off the 1514 area. Something to watch as I can bet it will be tested again.
Markets closed flat and mixed but the DOW rose up after being some 70 points down at 2:30 this afternoon on concerns on a Wal-Mart sales worry. $RUT fell from its new high to about where it closed yesterday. What is going to be the story on Monday?
I suspect we will see more tough luck and talk of recession from Europe over the weekend that will translate in to US market weakness next week.
Here is a blurb about that Wal-Mart email that may come to haunt the market place next week.
Wal-Mart shares are plunging as the firm reports a 'total disaster' in its February sales. Bloomberg obtained internal emails that note:"In case you haven’t seen a sales report these days, February MTD sales are a total disaster,” Jerry Murray, Wal-Mart’s vice president of finance and logistics, said in a Feb. 12 e-mail to other executives, referring to month-to-date sales. “The worst start to a month I have seen in my ~7 years with the company.... That points to our competitive landscape, which means everyone is suffering and probably worse than we are”
Things must not be serious over in Bentonville for this much truth to suddenly hit the tape. One senior executive summed it up perfectly - “Well, we just had one of those weeks here at Walmart U.S.
Where are all the customers? And where’s their money?” The company notes the end of the payroll tax cut by Obama and asks "We need to stop the stupid."
The RRR** has been narrow at the opening bell for the past several months and has continued the trend into the closing session. This continuing trend makes predictions of session movements nearly impossible making trading futile and unprofitable. As of right now, it is too late to catch the highs, if in fact we are really at one, and may be too early to start shorting.
As long as market volume remains light or the trading range is narrow, one can expect successful trading to remain elusive. The RRR** has been wider on volatile sessions lately and is expected to become more so as 2013 begins, but a lot of guessing remains. Correctly 'guessing', of course, is the tricky part of the successful trading equation. Any trades today will probably end up on the meager side of profitability if you are lucky as most trades have been less than optimal during the past several years.
I also have continuing issues with some pundits, writing almost every day, that there are setups for day trading. Best Stock Market Indicator Ever: Unchanged at 87% and Secondaries Confirm "Tradable" This may be true enough, but the trading range is so narrow that way too money has to be put on the table just to get back meager gains. Do not fall into the trap of money burning a hole in your pocket, sit tight better days are coming. I keep hoping for increasing volumes to signal improved trading.
Swing trading is also at your own risk for all the reasons mentioned above although guessing overnight trades would have been most profitable over the past year. Again, guessing where the market is going to be tomorrow or next week, at this time anyway, can be a foolish and costly endeavor.
The DOW at 4:00 is at 13981 up 8.37 or 0.06%.
The SP500 is at 1519 down 1.59 or -0.10%.
SPY is at 152.09 down 0.21 or -0.14%.
The $RUT is at 923.15 down 0.61 or -0.07%.
NASDAQ is at 3192 down 6.63 or -0.21%.
The longer trend is up, the past months trend is bullish and the current bias is up.
WTI oil was down this morning and is currently trading up at 95.94 trading between 97.45 and 95.25 and the bias is negative.
Gold was down this morning. Currently trading down at 1607.82, trading range is between 1662.00 and 1598.04 with a negative bias.
Dr. Copper is at 3.74 down from 3.76 earlier.
The US dollar rose from 80.30 earlier to 80.66 and is currently trading sideways at 80.55.
The 500 at the close.
The DOW at the close.
From Leavitt this morning.
The S&P is up 3.5 for the week. If it can resist dropping that amount today, it’ll be the index’s 7th consecutive up week. You have to go back to the end of 2010 and beginning of 2011 for such a streak.
But the upside progress isn’t anything to get excited about, and volume is declining. The market keeps going and going and going regardless of what’s put in its path. It’s not wise to fight it; it’s also not wise to throw all caution to the wind and assume it’ll continue uninterruptedly.
I’m not one for guessing top and prefer leaving that to others. I’ve seen it too many times over the years – traders miss huge moves because they think a top is coming or forming. And then 100 S&P points later they’re still sitting on the sidelines. Rallies last longer than you think. They don’t end when they should, they end when the last of the bears throws in the towel.
** RRR = Risk Reward Ratio
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Written by Gary