January 29th, 2013
in Gary's blogging
Midday Market Commentary For 01-29-2013
What appeared to be a bull trap instigated by the HFT computers drove the large caps upwards. The SP500 lingered around 1500 to 1505 for a while bullish fake out sucked in a lot of 'dippers' totally convinced a breakout was in progress.
By noon Mr. Market and investors alike were unsure what the next move would be as it looks like the unscrupulous lot of DaBoyz were playing games with the averages artificially melting them up. There is a distinct bearish tinge to markets movements but it remains to be seen what direction the markets will take before the close.
The RRR** has been narrow at the opening bell for the past several months and continued the trend into the midday session. This continuing trend makes predictions of session movements nearly impossible making trading futile and unprofitable.
As long as market volume remains light or the trading range is narrow, one can expect successful trading to remain elusive. The RRR** has been wider on volatile sessions lately and is expected to become more so as 2013 begins, but a lot of guessing remains. Correctly 'guessing', of course, is the tricky part of the successful trading equation. Any trades today will probably end up on the meager side of profitability if you are lucky as most trades have been less than optimal during the past several years.
I also have continuing issues with some pundits, writing almost every day, that there are setups for day trading. Best Stock Market Indicator Ever: Unchanged at 79% and Secondaries Confirm "Tradable" This may be true enough, but the trading range is so narrow that way too money has to be put on the table just to get back meager gains. Do not fall into the trap of money burning a hole in your pocket, sit tight better days are coming. I keep hoping for increasing volumes to signal improved trading.
Swing trading is also at your own risk for all the reasons mentioned above although guessing overnight trades would have been most profitable. Again, guessing where the market is going to be tomorrow or next week, at this time anyway, can be a foolish and costly endeavor.
The DOW at 12:15 is at 13938 up 56 or 0.40%.
The SP500 is at 1505 up 5 or 0.33%.
SPY is at 150.41 up 0.31 or 0.21%.
The $RUT is at 905.08 down 1.65 or -0.08%.
NASDAQ is at 3150 down 3.50 or -0.11%.
The longer trend is up, the past months trend is bullish and the current bias is neutral.
WTI oil was up this morning and is currently trading down at 97.72 trading between 96.25 and 97.83 and the bias is positive for the moment.
Gold was up this morning. Currently trading sideways at 1661.95, trading range is between 1651.00 and 1666.10 with a neutral bias.
Dr. Copper is at 3.68 rising from 3.66 earlier.
The US dollar fell from 79.93 earlier to 79.61 and is currently trading down at 79.66.
** RRR = Risk Reward Ratio
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Written by Gary