January 28th, 2013
in Gary's blogging
Closing Market Commentary For 01-28-2013
Markets closed mixed and flat on conflicting economic data today. I would have expected something more in response to all of the bullishness being reported by the majority of the pundits. But then, few if any of them actually buy and sell securities. What they sell is hot air laced with concepts similar to flatulence in a crowded elevator.
Maybe tomorrow we will see some action, but I doubt it.
The RRR** has been narrow at the opening bell for the past several months and continued the trend into the closing session. This continuing trend makes predictions of session movements nearly impossible making trading futile and unprofitable.
As long as market volume remains light or the trading range is narrow, one can expect successful trading to remain elusive. The RRR** has been wider on volatile sessions lately and is expected to become more so as 2013 begins, but a lot of guessing remains. Correctly 'guessing', of course, is the tricky part of the successful trading equation. Any trades today will probably end up on the meager side of profitability if you are lucky as most trades have been less than optimal during the past several years.
I also have continuing issues with some pundits, writing almost every day, that there are setups for day trading. Best Stock Market Indicator Ever: Unchanged at 79% and Secondaries Confirm "Tradable" This may be true enough, but the trading range is so narrow that way too money has to be put on the table just to get back meager gains. Do not fall into the trap of money burning a hole in your pocket, sit tight better days are coming. I keep hoping for increasing volumes to signal improved trading.
Swing trading is also at your own risk for all the reasons mentioned above although guessing overnight trades would have been most profitable. Again, guessing where the market is going to be tomorrow or next week, at this time anyway, can be a foolish and costly endeavor.
The DOW at 4:00 is at 13881 down 14 or -0.10%.
The SP500 is at 1500 down 2.78 or -0.18%.
SPY is at 150.05 down 0.20 or -0.13%.
The $RUT is at 906.71 up 1.47 or 0.16%.
NASDAQ is at 3154 up 4.59 or 0.15%.
The longer trend is up, the past months trend is bullish and the current bias is down.
WTI oil was up and then turned down this morning and is currently trading up at 96.52 trading between 96.80 and 95.75 and the bias is positive.
Gold was trading down and has turned up this morning. Currently trading up at 1655.90, trading range is between 1662.15 and 1652.35 with a neutral bias.
Dr. Copper is at 3.66 down from 3.67 earlier.
The US dollar fell from 79.99 earlier to 79.79 and is currently trading up at 79.89.
The 500 at the close.
The DOW at the close.
** RRR = Risk Reward Ratio
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Written by Gary