January 24th, 2013
in Gary's blogging
Opening Market Commentary For 01-24-2013
Apple (AAPL) took yesterday's aftermarkets down substantially and recovering to yesterday's highs just before the opening. For what ever reason this BS market is not for children to play in as the harsh reality will eventually set in.
Markets opened up then paused and continued the ascent into the pie in the sky. Not totally unexpected as the technicals indicate the markets could go even higher, but it is getting scary to stay in any long position.
My proprietary indicators are all pointing down this morning as the averages continue melting up, something is about to give.
I wouldn't at all surprised to see the markets take a breather at any time now. The SP500 has advanced 6 or 7 days, depending on how you count them, and needs a rest. This market has reached a tipping point in where only the foolish would take any position long or short. Of course may fortunes have been made and lost in situations like this if you guess correctly.
The RRR** has been narrow at the opening bell for the past several months and continued the trend again this morning. This continuing trend makes predictions of session movements nearly impossible making trading futile and unprofitable.
As long as market volume remains light or the trading range is narrow, one can expect successful trading to remain elusive. The RRR** has been wider on volatile sessions lately and is expected to become more so as 2013 begins, but a lot of guessing remains. Correctly 'guessing', of course, is the tricky part of the successful trading equation. Any trades today will probably end up on the meager side of profitability if you are lucky as most trades have been less than optimal during the past several years.
I also have continuing issues with some pundits, writing almost every day, that there are setups for day trading. Best Stock Market Indicator Ever: Unchanged at 79% and Secondaries Confirm "Tradable" This may be true enough, but the trading range is so narrow that way too money has to be put on the table just to get back meager gains. Do not fall into the trap of money burning a hole in your pocket, sit tight better days are coming. I keep hoping for increasing volumes to signal improved trading.
Swing trading is also at your own risk for all the reasons mentioned above although guessing overnight trades would have been most profitable. Again, guessing where the market is going to be tomorrow or next week, at this time anyway, can be a foolish and costly endeavor.
The DOW at 10:15 is at 13853 up 74 or 0.53%.
The SP500 is at 1499 up 4 or 0.30%.
SPY is at 149.82 up 0.45 or 0.30%.
The $RUT is at 902.06 up 5.35 or 0.31%.
NASDAQ is at 3142 down 11 or -0.34%. (Watch out as this is telling!)
The longer trend is up, the past months trend is bullish and the current bias is up.
WTI oil rose this morning and is currently trading down at 96.12 trading between 95.15 and 96.40 and the bias is positive.
Gold was down this morning. Currently trading up at 1670.00, trading range is between 1686.23 and 1665.45 with a negative bias.
Dr. Copper is at 3.68 down from 3.71 earlier.
The US dollar rose from 79.97 earlier to 80.21 and is currently trading down at 80.03.
** RRR = Risk Reward Ratio
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Written by Gary