January 23rd, 2013
in Gary's blogging
Opening Market Commentary For 01-23-2013
Markets did close up but looking lackluster. The market is gearing up for a correction, so everyone had better get ready. It may not be more than 5.5% and it may not come just yet either, but it will come soon enough.
The RRR** has been narrow at the opening bell for the past several months and continued the trend into the closing session. This continuing trend makes predictions of session movements nearly impossible making trading futile and unprofitable.
As long as market volume remains light or the trading range is narrow, one can expect successful trading to remain elusive. The RRR** has been wider on volatile sessions lately and is expected to become more so as 2013 begins, but a lot of guessing remains. Correctly 'guessing', of course, is the tricky part of the successful trading equation. Any trades today will probably end up on the meager side of profitability if you are lucky as most trades have been less than optimal during the past several years.
I also have continuing issues with some pundits, writing almost every day, that there are setups for day trading. Best Stock Market Indicator Ever: Unchanged at 79% and Secondaries Confirm "Tradable" This may be true enough, but the trading range is so narrow that way too money has to be put on the table just to get back meager gains. Do not fall into the trap of money burning a hole in your pocket, sit tight better days are coming. I keep hoping for increasing volumes to signal improved trading.
Swing trading is also at your own risk for all the reasons mentioned above although guessing overnight trades would have been most profitable. Again, guessing where the market is going to be tomorrow or next week, at this time anyway, can be a foolish and costly endeavor.
The DOW at 4:00 is at 13779 up 67 or 0.49%.
The SP500 is at 1494 up 2.22 or 0.15%.
NASDAQ is at 3153 up 10 or 0.33%.
The longer trend is up, the past months trend is bullish and the current bias is up but lackluster activity at best.
WTI oil was down this morning and is currently trading up at 95.67 trading between 96.90 and 96.20 and the bias is neutral.
Gold was trading sideways this morning in a narrow 4 point spread. Currently trading up at 1686.20, trading range is between 1694.90 and 1683.58 with a negative bias.
Dr. Copper is at 3.69 down from 3.71 earlier.
The US dollar fell from 80.05 earlier to 79.76 and then shot up to 80.21. The USD is currently trading down at 79.98.
** RRR = Risk Reward Ratio
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Written by Gary