January 23rd, 2013
in Gary's blogging
Opening Market Commentary For 01-23-2013
Premarket was more or less flat this morning looking somewhat like the past morning sessions. Google (GOOG) and IBM (IBM) both had good financial reports that at least did not spook Mr. Market and send the averages down.
Markets opened on time and that is about the best news one can look forward to. The HFT computers have been active melting the averages upward and I expect more of the same while we wait on the debt ceiling extension vote today. By 10 am the markets were flat and lackluster.
Several market pundits have made remarks that the markets are 'rallying' like there is no tomorrow. I would not call melting up, mostly by HFT computers, a rally by any means. Today the excitement will come later after the vote.
. . . the focus the market today is likely to be the US House of Representatives vote on whether to extend the government's debt ceiling until May 19th. A White House spokesman said that President Barack Obama "won't stand in the way" of this short-term fix.
The RRR** has been narrow at the opening bell for the past several months and continued the trend again this morning. This continuing trend makes predictions of session movements nearly impossible making trading futile and unprofitable.
As long as market volume remains light or the trading range is narrow, one can expect successful trading to remain elusive. The RRR** has been wider on volatile sessions lately and is expected to become more so as 2013 begins, but a lot of guessing remains. Correctly 'guessing', of course, is the tricky part of the successful trading equation. Any trades today will probably end up on the meager side of profitability if you are lucky as most trades have been less than optimal during the past several years.
I also have continuing issues with some pundits, writing almost every day, that there are setups for day trading. Best Stock Market Indicator Ever: Unchanged at 79% and Secondaries Confirm "Tradable" This may be true enough, but the trading range is so narrow that way too money has to be put on the table just to get back meager gains. Do not fall into the trap of money burning a hole in your pocket, sit tight better days are coming. I keep hoping for increasing volumes to signal improved trading.
Swing trading is also at your own risk for all the reasons mentioned above although guessing overnight trades would have been most profitable. Again, guessing where the market is going to be tomorrow or next week, at this time anyway, can be a foolish and costly endeavor.
Current Market numbers are not available right now as the main computer here is down.
The longer trend is up, the past months trend is bullish and the current bias is lackluster.
WTI oil was down this morning and is currently trading up at 96.57 trading between 96.90 and 96.20 and the bias is positive.
Gold was trading sideways this morning in a narrow 4 point spread. Currently trading down at 1692.44, trading range is between 1694.90 and 1690.59 with a neutral bias.
Dr. Copper is at 3.70 down from 3.71 earlier.
The US dollar fell from 80.05 earlier to 79.76 and is currently trading down at 79.86.
** RRR = Risk Reward Ratio
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Written by Gary