January 18th, 2013
in Gary's blogging
Midday Market Commentary For 01-18-2013
Markets continued to melt down in low, but moderate red volume. The $VIX has fallen to a new low of 13 and has remained there for the entire morning session. Several pundits are trying to make something out of this, but it remains to be seen what investors really have to say about the market place.
At noon the markets were putting in another lackluster day as Mr. Market bucks the upper resistance level.
The RRR** has been narrow at the opening bell for the past several months and continued the trend into the midday session. This continuing trend makes predictions of session movements nearly impossible making trading futile and unprofitable.
As long as market volume remains light or the trading range is narrow, one can expect successful trading to remain elusive. The RRR** has been wider on volatile sessions lately and is expected to become more so as 2013 begins, but a lot of guessing remains. Correctly 'guessing', of course, is the tricky part of the successful trading equation. Any trades today will probably end up on the meager side of profitability if you are lucky as most trades have been less than optimal during the past several years.
I also have continuing issues with some pundits, writing almost every day, that there are setups for day trading. Best Stock Market Indicator Ever: Unchanged at 79% and Secondaries Confirm "Tradable" This may be true enough, but the trading range is so narrow that way too money has to be put on the table just to get back meager gains. Do not fall into the trap of money burning a hole in your pocket, sit tight better days are coming. I keep hoping for increasing volumes to signal improved trading.
Swing trading is also at your own risk for all the reasons mentioned above although guessing overnight trades would have been most profitable. Again, guessing where the market is going to be tomorrow or next week, at this time anyway, can be a foolish and costly endeavor.
The DOW at 12:15 is at 13573 down 22 or -0.17%.
The SP500 is at 1476 down 4 or -0.27%.
SPY is at 147.57 down 0.43 or -0.29%.
The $RUT is at 889.03 down 1.33 or -0.15%.
NASDAQ is at 3120 down 15 or -0.48%.
The longer trend is up, the past months trend is bullish and the current bias is down.
WTI oil was up this morning and is currently trading sideways at 95.21 trading between 95.10 and 95.70 and the bias is negative.
Gold was up this morning. Currently trading down at 1687.98, trading range is between 1665.00 and 1694.90 with a negative bias.
Dr. Copper is at 3.67 up from 3.60 earlier.
The US dollar up from 79.70 earlier to 80.27 and is currently trading down at 80.14.
** RRR = Risk Reward Ratio
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Written by Gary