January 15th, 2013
in Gary's blogging
Midday Market Commentary For 01-15-2013
Shortly after 1 pm the markets peaked and started to melt downwards and picked up steam around an hour later descending at a faster rate. Volume remained low implicating DaBoyz and the HFT computers doing their crony shenanigans of fleecing the 'sheeples'.
By 3:40 the SP500 had melted back up to a new high for the year and one point above the most recent high. The resistance is really holding the averages at bay, but I suspect by Friday it will be penetrated and all will cheer. For a short while anyway!
By 4:00 the sellers and buyers appeared to be about equal with the bears wining during the last 1 minute moving the SP500 ¾ of a point. Whew, what excitement. (I hope you picked up the sarcasm.)
The RRR** has been narrow at the opening bell for the past several months and continued the trend into the closing session. This continuing trend makes predictions of session movements nearly impossible making trading futile and unprofitable.
As long as market volume remains light or the trading range is narrow, one can expect successful trading to remain elusive. The RRR** has been wider on volatile sessions lately and is expected to become more so as 2013 begins, but a lot of guessing remains. Correctly 'guessing', of course, is the tricky part of the successful trading equation. Any trades today will probably end up on the meager side of profitability if you are lucky as most trades have been less than optimal during the past several years.
I also have continuing issues with some pundits, writing almost every day, that there are setups for day trading. Best Stock Market Indicator Ever: Unchanged at 79% and Secondaries Confirm "Tradable" This may be true enough, but the trading range is so narrow that way too money has to be put on the table just to get back meager gains. Do not fall into the trap of money burning a hole in your pocket, sit tight better days are coming. I keep hoping for increasing volumes to signal improved trading.
Swing trading is also at your own risk for all the reasons mentioned above although guessing overnight trades would have been most profitable. Again, guessing where the market is going to be tomorrow or next week, at this time anyway, can be a foolish and costly endeavor.
The DOW at 4:00 is at 13534 up 27 or 0.20%.
The SP500 is at 1472 up 1.66 or 0.11%.
SPY is at 147.01 up 0.03 or 0.02%.
The $RUT is at 884.60 up 4.50 or 0.51%.
NASDAQ is at 3110 down 6.72 or -0.22%.
The longer trend is up, the past months trend is bullish and the current bias is up.
WTI oil was up this morning and is currently trading down at 93.47 trading between 94.45 and 92.95 and the bias is negative.
Brent crude was up earlier and is currently trading up at 110.47 trading between 112.45 and 110.35 and the bias is negative.
Gold was up this morning. Currently trading down at 1678.75, trading range is between 1659.50 and 1685.16 with a neutral bias.
Dr. Copper is at 3.64 falling from 3.69 earlier.
The US dollar rose from 79.43 earlier to 79.91 and is currently trading down at 79.78.
The 500 at the close.
The DOW at the close.
I have said all along that the Keynesian PhD's running the various countries around the world have their bums up you know where.
The formerly hawkish Minneapolis Fed chief Kocherlakota stakes out his position as the most dovish of the FOMC. He says current policy isn't easy enough and calls for the Fed to lower its unemployment rate threshold - the trigger for tighter policy - to 5.5% from 6.5%.
The speech is worth the read - an insight into the thinking of PhDs who believe tweaking a "communications policy" or altering some level of reserves can guide a $16T economy to the exact point they wish it to go.
** RRR = Risk Reward Ratio
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Written by Gary