January 10th, 2013
in Gary's blogging
Opening Market Commentary For 01-10-2013
Premarkets were up again this morning and not at all unexpected. U.S. Jobless Claims rose, unemployment in Greece is up, ECB's Draghi says economic weakness to extend into 2013 and it appears that not much has changed.
Markets opened up but flat and then started a slow melt down. The current highs for the morning HAVE NOT gone above the sideways trough started 6 sessions ago. The upper resistance is a substantial barrier and not like to be penetrated with out a serious fight from the bears. I doubt that anything exciting will be forthcoming today. Tomorrow on the other hand may be another story.
Not everything is rosy, but some news is has me wondering more and more if we are ever going to see a 'real' recovery.
The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index falls to -34.4 from -31.8, but continues a run of 16 straight weeks higher than -40, a level associated with severe economic distress.
Still the index is 18.5 points below its 27-year average, and way below the -20 read at the start of 2008 and -5 at the start of 2007.
The RRR** has been narrow at the opening bell for the past several months and continued the trend again this morning. This continuing trend makes predictions of session movements nearly impossible making trading futile and unprofitable.
As long as market volume remains light or the trading range is narrow, one can expect successful trading to remain elusive. The RRR** has been wider on volatile sessions lately and is expected to become more so as 2013 begins, but a lot of guessing remains. Correctly 'guessing', of course, is the tricky part of the successful trading equation. Any trades today will probably end up on the meager side of profitability if you are lucky as most trades have been less than optimal during the past several years.
I also have continuing issues with some pundits, writing almost every day, that there are setups for day trading. This may be true enough, but the trading range is so narrow that way too money has to be put on the table just to get back meager gains. Do not fall into the trap of money burning a hole in your pocket, sit tight better days are coming. I keep hoping for increasing volumes to signal improved trading.
Swing trading is also at your own risk for all the reasons mentioned above although guessing overnight trades would have been most profitable. Again, guessing where the market is going to be tomorrow or next week, at this time anyway, can be a foolish and costly endeavor.
The DOW at 10:00 is at 13438 down 47 or 0.37%.
The SP500 is at 1467 up 6 or 0.43%.
SPY is at 146.50 up 0.63 or 0.43%.
The $RUT is at 879.35 down 0.14 or -0.02%.
NASDAQ is at 3119 up 13 or 0.43%.
The longer trend is up, the past months trend is bullish and the current bias is up.
WTI oil was up this morning and is currently trading down at 94.00 trading between 92.40 and 94.70 and the bias is negative.
Brent crude was up earlier and is currently trading down at 112.54 trading between 110.49 and 113.28 and the bias is negative.
Gold was up this morning. Currently trading up at 1674.81, trading range is between 1644.00 and 1676.08 with a positive bias.
Dr. Copper is at 3.70 up from 3.66 earlier.
The US dollar fell from 80.79 earlier to 80.06 and is currently trading down at 80.11.
** RRR = Risk Reward Ratio
To contact me with questions, comments or constructive criticism is always encouraged and appreciated:
Written by Gary