January 10th, 2013
in Gary's blogging
Closing Market Commentary For 01-10-2013
Interestingly, the markets pushed further into the 'resistance' zones during the afternoon session pushing the averages up for a nice close. New highs were made for the DOW and SP500 but the Russell 2000 fell back some indicating overall weakness.
Markets closed up, but NOT in a very convincing manner – just up a tad, as I like to say. Exactly what is going to happen next week is anyone’s guess, but if the earnings look good I would speculate that we will the averages push higher.
I used to love playing the weekend numbers as they were easy to guess, but not any more. Typically, I would 'bet' that Monday would be down however, that 'bet' today couldn't even be classified as a SWAG.
What rally? I guess Tom below means the one 8 sessions ago.
“The rally in the S&P should peak close to 1500 (2% above its current level), says Tom DeMark, calling for at least a 5.5% correction from that point. The well-followed technician has or has had the ear of some of the hedge fund world's biggest guns. He's currently basking in his Dec. 4 bottom call on China, since which the Shanghai Composite has risen 16%.”
The RRR** has been narrow at the opening bell for the past several months and continued the trend into the midday session. This continuing trend makes predictions of session movements nearly impossible making trading futile and unprofitable.
As long as market volume remains light or the trading range is narrow, one can expect successful trading to remain elusive. The RRR** has been wider on volatile sessions lately and is expected to become more so as 2013 begins, but a lot of guessing remains. Correctly 'guessing', of course, is the tricky part of the successful trading equation. Any trades today will probably end up on the meager side of profitability if you are lucky as most trades have been less than optimal during the past several years.
I also have continuing issues with some pundits, writing almost every day, that there are setups for day trading. This may be true enough, but the trading range is so narrow that way too money has to be put on the table just to get back meager gains. Do not fall into the trap of money burning a hole in your pocket, sit tight better days are coming. I keep hoping for increasing volumes to signal improved trading.
Swing trading is also at your own risk for all the reasons mentioned above although guessing overnight trades would have been most profitable. Again, guessing where the market is going to be tomorrow or next week, at this time anyway, can be a foolish and costly endeavor.
The DOW at 4:00 is at 13471 up 80 or 0.60%.
The SP500 is at 1472 up 11 or 0.76%.
SPY is at 147.04 up 1.13 or 0.77%.
The $RUT is at 881.24 up 1.73 or 0.20%.
NASDAQ is at 3121 up 16 or 0.51%.
The longer trend is up, the past months trend is bullish and the current bias is up.
WTI oil was up this morning and is currently trading down at 93.88 trading between 92.40 and 94.70 and the bias is negative.
Brent crude was up earlier and is currently trading down at 111.69 trading between 110.49 and 113.28 and the bias is negative.
Gold was up this morning. Currently trading down at 1673.57, trading range is between 1644.00 and 1678.52 with a negative bias.
Dr. Copper is at 3.71 up from 3.66 earlier.
The US dollar fell from 80.79 earlier to 79.74 and is currently trading down at 79.84.
The 500 at the close.
The DOW at the close.
** RRR = Risk Reward Ratio
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Written by Gary
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