January 9th, 2013
in Gary's blogging
Closing Market Commentary For 01-09-2013
This session was continually melting down from the morning highs until a few minutes from the close. But alas, that brief moment in the sun didn't pan out and leaving us in another dreary day of lackluster trading. The averages still remain just below resistances and previous highs and keeping traders wondering just how the January Effect is going to play out. Obviously, not many want to jump on a train that may be heading for another 'cliff'.
The markets closed in the green but flat. Tomorrow’s session is poised to be another up day, but remaining in the sideways trough that was started 4 sessions ago. Today's DOW and SP500 charts below.
The RRR** has been narrow at the opening bell for the past several months and continued the trend again into the closing session. This continuing trend makes predictions of session movements nearly impossible making trading futile and unprofitable.
As long as market volume remains light or the trading range is narrow, one can expect successful trading to remain elusive. The RRR** has been wider on volatile sessions lately and is expected to become more so as 2013 begins, but a lot of guessing remains. Correctly 'guessing', of course, is the tricky part of the successful trading equation. Any trades today will probably end up on the meager side of profitability if you are lucky as most trades have been less than optimal during the past several years.
I also have continuing issues with some pundits, writing almost every day, that there are setups for day trading. This may be true enough, but the trading range is so narrow that way too money has to be put on the table just to get back meager gains. Do not fall into the trap of money burning a hole in your pocket, sit tight better days are coming. I keep hoping for increasing volumes to signal improved trading.
Swing trading is also at your own risk for all the reasons mentioned above although guessing overnight trades would have been most profitable. Again, guessing where the market is going to be tomorrow or next week, at this time anyway, can be a foolish and costly endeavor.
The DOW at 4:00 is at 13390 up 61 or 0.46%.
The SP500 is at 1461 up 4 or 0.27%.
SPY is at 145.94 up 0.39 or 0.27%.
The $RUT is at 879.51 up 4.81 or 0.55%.
NASDAQ is at 3105 up 14 or 0.45%.
The longer trend is up, the past months trend is bullish and the current bias is down.
WTI oil was trading sideways this morning and is currently trading up at 93.18 trading between 93.80 and 92.40 and the bias is neutral.
Brent crude was trading sideways earlier and is currently trading up at 111.69 trading between 112.45 and 110.55 and the bias is neutral.
Gold was mixed this morning. Currently trading up at 1657.63, trading range is between 1665.62 and 1643.80 with a neutral bias.
Dr. Copper is at 3.67 down from 3.70 earlier.
The US dollar rose from 80.45 earlier to 80.74 and is currently trading down at 80.64.
The 500 at the close. The sideways trough is better defined here.
The DOW at the close.
The NASDAQ at the close. The gap at 3021 still is open and most likely we will see the markets decline at least this far before rising to any new highs.
** RRR = Risk Reward Ratio
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Written by Gary