January 4th, 2013
in Gary's blogging
Opening Market Commentary For 01-04-2013
Premarkets were generally melting up towards a higher opening after the Labor Department reported non-farm payrolls increased by 155,000 in December. This beat expectations of an increase of 150,000 analysts were expecting. According to Foxnews, the unemployment rate held steady at 7.8%, compared to expectations of 7.7%. November’s jobless rate was revised up by 0.1 percentage point to 7.8%.
Markets opened mixed and flat while traders, what there is left of us, sit quietly around waiting for the other shoe to drop. Opening red volume was relatively low and what green volume appearing from time to time was anemic.
By 10 the averages were melting up and solidly in the green and then just like that the bears marched in. Opps, the bulls took over once again!
Today's session might be an interesting one as not everyone is happy about the 'not-so-bad' news from the Labor Department as reported below.
BLS reports that 155,000 Jobs were added in December, right on top of the 152,000 expected. The unemployment rate was 7.8%, vs the 7.7% expected: who else is surprised that the rate is now rising with Obama reelected? ADP, which will certainly be revised lower now, remains a farce.
The RRR** has been narrow at the opening bell for the past several months and continued the trend again this morning. This continuing trend makes predictions of session movements nearly impossible making trading futile and unprofitable.
As long as market volume remains light or the trading range is narrow, one can expect successful trading to remain elusive. The RRR** has been wider on volatile sessions lately and is expected to become more so as 2012 ends and 2013 begins, but a lot of guessing remains. Correctly 'guessing', of course, is the tricky part of the successful trading equation. Any trades today will probably end up on the meager side of profitability if you are lucky as most trades have been less than optimal during the past year.
I also have continuing issues with some pundits, writing almost every day, that there are setups for day trading. This may be true enough, but the trading range is so narrow that way too money has to be put on the table just to get back meager gains. Do not fall into the trap of money burning a hole in your pocket, sit tight better days are coming. Watch for increasing volume to signal improved trading.
Swing trading is also at your own risk for all the reasons mentioned above. Because the market is at a crossroads of sorts, I would prefer to sit on my hands as the markets are currently untradable. Guessing where the market is going to be tomorrow or next week, at this time anyway, can be a foolish and costly endeavor.
The DOW at 10:15 is at 13407 up 15 or 0.11%.
The SP500 is at 1462 up 3 or 0.21%.
SPY is at 146.05 up 0.32 or 0.22%.
The $RUT is at 876.56 up 4 or 0.45%.
NASDAQ is at 3098 down 1.53 or -0.02%.
The longer trend is up, the past months trend is bullish and the current bias is up.
WTI oil was down this morning and the reversed itself and is currently trading up at 92.94 trading between 92.96 and 91.55 and the bias is positive.
Brent crude was also down earlier and is currently trading up at 111.61 trading between 112.10 and 110.39 and the bias is positive.
Gold was down this morning and has since reversed its course. Currently trading down at 1647.59, trading range is between 1663.64 and 1626.00 with a positive bias.
Dr. Copper is at 3.69 up from 3.67 earlier.
The US dollar fell from 80.99 earlier to 80.59 and is currently trading up at 80.66.
** RRR = Risk Reward Ratio
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Written by Gary