January 3rd, 2013
in Gary's blogging
Closing Market Commentary For 01-03-2013
Market closed down and flat. Maybe the jobs report tomorrow can spark some life into this market. Everyone has bought into the market and no one else is going to dip their toes, so where do you think it is going to go next? Hint – down.
Do not have much to add except be on your toes if you bought in on Tuesday as many did.
The RRR** has been narrow at the opening bell for the past several months and continued the trend into the session session. This continuing trend makes predictions of session movements nearly impossible making trading futile and unprofitable.
As long as market volume remains light or the trading range is narrow, one can expect successful trading to remain elusive. The RRR** has been wider on volatile sessions lately and is expected to become more so as 2012 ends and 2013 begins, but a lot of guessing remains. Correctly 'guessing', of course, is the tricky part of the successful trading equation.
Any trades today will probably end up on the meager side of profitability if you are lucky as most trades have been less than optimal during the past year. Almost every good trade lately required staying overnight, but it was also a giant leap of faith.
I also have continuing issues with some pundits, writing almost every day, that there are setups for day trading. This may be true enough, but the trading range is so narrow that way too money has to be put on the table just to get back meager gains. Do not fall into the trap of money burning a hole in your pocket, sit tight better days are coming. Watch for increasing volume to signal improved trading.
Swing trading is also at your own risk for all the reasons mentioned above. Because the market is at a crossroads of sorts, I would prefer to sit on my hands as the markets are currently untradable. Guessing where the market is going to be tomorrow or next week, at this time anyway, can be a foolish and costly endeavor.
The DOW at 4pm is at 13391 down 21 or -0.16%.
The SP500 is at 1459 down 3 or -0.21%.
SPY is at 145.68 down 0.38 or -0.26%.
The $RUT is at 872.60 down 0.82 or -0.09%.
NASDAQ is at 3100 down 11.69 or -0.38%.
The longer trend is up, the past months trend is bullish and the current bias is down.
WTI oil was up this morning and is currently trading down at 92.68 trading between 92.50 and 93.18 and the bias is negative.
Brent crude was trading sideways earlier and is currently trading down at 111.83 trading between 111.10 and 112.45 and the bias is negative.
Gold was down this morning. Currently trading down at 1664.45, trading range is between 1689.35 and 1660.90 with a negative bias.
Dr. Copper is at 3.69 down from 3.76 earlier.
The US dollar rose from 79.90 earlier to 80.58 and is currently trading up at 80.58.
The 500 at the close.
The DOW at the close.
** RRR = Risk Reward Ratio
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Written by Gary