December 26th, 2012
in Gary's blogging
Opening Market Commentary For 12-26-2012
Premarkets were up at one point but not higher than Monday's high. As on Monday, there will be only one market commentary today. If anything happens worthwhile, I will report it here. The falling home prices news reported this morning had little effect on the markets and there wasn't much else for the markets to reflect on. I expect today's markets to trade in a tight range, mostly down, with anemic volume. We will probably see the HFT algo computers active, but that is about the extent of today's market action.
The markets opened flat with a negative slant and by 10:15 it appears were going to see another Monday's action.
The US Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index for December fell to 5 vs 8 expected by analysis and the last report was 9.
Foxnews reported, “Home prices in 20 major U.S. metropolitan areas fell 0.1% in October from September on a non-seasonally adjusted basis, a slightly shallower fall than the 0.2% economists expected, according to the S&P/Case-Shiller report. Prices climbed 4.3% from the same month in 2011.”
We could see some market movement before the Friday's market close and Levitt sums it it well.
“The fiscal cliff is front and center and at the top of the list of important market-moving items. Last week good news sent the market up, and bad news sent it down. I don’t expect a resolution until after New Years, and while I’d like to think they’re hammering out the details of an agreement now and then will vote first thing in 2013, there are no guarantees. Until the fiscal cliff is resolved, the market will be held hostage.”
The RRR** has been narrow at the opening bell for the past several months and continued the trend again this morning. This continuing trend makes predictions of session movements nearly impossible making trading futile and unprofitable.
As long as market volume remains light or the trading range is narrow, one can expect successful trading to remain elusive. The RRR** has been wider on volatile sessions lately and is expected to become more so as 2012 ends and 2013 begins, but a lot of guessing remains. Correctly 'guessing', of course, is the tricky part of the successful trading equation. Any trades today will probably end up on the meager side of profitability if you are lucky as most trades have been less than optimal during the past year.
I also have continuing issues with some pundits, writing almost every day, that there are setups for day trading. This may be true enough, but the trading range is so narrow that way too money has to be put on the table just to get back meager gains. Do not fall into the trap of money burning a hole in your pocket, sit tight better days are coming. Watch for increasing volume to signal improved trading.
Swing trading is also at your own risk for all the reasons mentioned above. Because the market is at a crossroads of sorts, I would prefer to sit on my hands as the markets are currently untradable. Guessing where the market is going to be tomorrow or next week, at this time anyway, can be a foolish and costly endeavor.
The DOW at 10:15 is at 13162 up 22 or 0.17%.
The SP500 is at 1427 up 0.66 or 0.05%.
SPY is at 142.49 up 0.14 or 0.10%.
The $RUT is at 845.34 up 0.58 or 0.07%.
NASDAQ is at 1313 up 0.84 or 0.03%.
The longer trend is up, the past months trend is bullish and the current bias is down.
WTI oil was rising today and is currently trading up at 91.17 trading between 89.30 and 91.30 and the bias is positive.
Brent crude last report was att 109.00.
Gold was rising this morning. Currently trading down at 1664.40, trading range is between 1651.68 and 1667.25 with a negative bias.
Dr. Copper is at 3.60 rose from 3.56 earlier.
The US dollar fell from 79.80 earlier to 79.49 and is currently trading up at 79.52.
** RRR = Risk Reward Ratio
To contact me with questions, comments or constructive criticism is always encouraged and appreciated:
Written by Gary