December 24th, 2012
in Gary's blogging
Opening Market Commentary For 12-24-2012
Premarkets were down from Friday's close, but melting up. There will be one market report today as the 'family' has my week planed and if I want to be able to come home tonight (or the next, or the next) I will comply. 'Resistance is Futile' as they say.
Seriously, I'll be watching and if anything exciting does happen, I'll be around to report it to you. Trading is expected to be very light this week and the 'fiscal cliff'' will wait until the malefactors of Washington D.C., err, I mean esteemed politicians return on the 27th.
Markets opened slightly down, but higher than Friday's morning low. Volume, as expected, is very light and trading will be the same. The HFT algo computers may play around with the numbers today melting them up, but it won't matter in the end game. Please enjoy your Holidays, drive carefully and consume adult beverages responsibly.
The RRR** has been narrow at the opening bell (again) for the past several months and continued the trend again this morning. This continuing trend makes predictions of session movements nearly impossible making trading futile and unprofitable.
As long as market volume remains light or the trading range is narrow, one can expect successful trading to remain elusive. The RRR** has been wider on volatile sessions lately and is expected to become more so as 2012 ends and 2013 begins, but a lot of guessing remains. Correctly 'guessing', of course, is the tricky part of the successful trading equation. Any trades today will probably end up on the meager side of profitability if you are lucky as most trades have been less than optimal during the past year.
I also have continuing issues with some pundits, writing almost every day, that there are setups for day trading. This may be true enough, but the trading range is so narrow that way too money has to be put on the table just to get back meager gains. Do not fall into the trap of money burning a hole in your pocket, sit tight better days are coming. Watch for increasing volume to signal improved trading.
Swing trading is also at your own risk for all the reasons mentioned above. Because the market is at a crossroads of sorts, I would prefer to sit on my hands as the markets are currently untradable. Guessing where the market is going to be tomorrow or next week, at this time anyway, can be a foolish and costly endeavor.
The DOW at 10 am is at 13149 down 41 or -0.32%.
The SP500 is at 1425 down 5 or -0.33%.
SPY is at 142.31 down 0.48 or -0.34%.
The $RUT is at 843.61 down 4.29 or -0.51%.
NASDAQ is at 3011 down 9 or -0.30%.
The longer trend is up, the past months trend is bullish and the current bias is down.
WTI oil was down today and is currently trading down at 88.32 trading between 88.95 and 88.34 and the bias is negative.
Brent crude last price was 109.00.
Gold was up this morning. Currently trading down at 1659.62, trading range is between 1650.00 and 1665.86 with a negative bias.
Dr. Copper is at 3.56 down from 3.58 earlier.
The US dollar fell from 79.75 earlier to 79.44 and is currently trading up at 79.60.
** RRR = Risk Reward Ratio
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Written by Gary