December 19th, 2012
in Gary's blogging
Midday Market Commentary For 12-19-2012
By noontime the major averages, and stocks in general, were turning in a lackluster performance after the past two sessions that were notably higher. The Markets are lingering near the unchanged mark, remaining flat and directionless recording modest moves.
For the most part the HFT computers are recording the most action as traders are keeping a close eye on any developments in Washington. Any positive positive progress in budget negations between the highly partisan John Boehner and President Barack Obama will certainly move the number higher.
The RRR** has been narrow at the opening bell for the past several months and was a bit wider than usual this morning. However, this continuing trend, in spite of this morning, makes predictions of session movements nearly impossible making trading futile and unprofitable.
As long as market volume remains light or the trading range is narrow, one can expect successful trading to remain elusive. The RRR** has been wider on volatile sessions lately and is expected to become more so as the year ends, but a lot of guessing still remains. Correctly 'guessing', of course, is the tricky part of the successful trading equation. Any trades today will probably end up on the meager side of profitability if you are lucky as most trades have been less than optimal during this past year.
I also have issues with some pundits writing almost every day that there are setups for day trading. This may be true enough, but the trading range is so narrow that way too money has to be put on the table just to get back meager gains. Do not fall into the trap of money burning a hole in your pocket, sit tight better days are coming. Watch for increasing volume to signal improved trading.
Swing trading is also at your own risk for all the reasons mentioned above. Because the market is at a crossroads of sorts, I would prefer to sit on my hands as the markets are currently untradable. Guessing where the market is going to be tomorrow or next week, at this time anyway, can be a foolish and costly endeavor.
The DOW at 12:00 is at 13326 down 26 or -0.20%.
The SP500 is at 1443 down 4 or -0.27%.
SPY is at 145.02 down 0.36 or -0.25%.
The $RUT is at 848.60 up 0.85 or 0.10%.
NASDAQ is at 3054 down 0.64 or -0.02%.
The longer trend is up, the past months trend is bearish and the current bias is down.
WTI oil was up early this morning and has been very choppy. It is currently trading up at 89.51 trading between 89.60 and 87.80 and the bias is positive.
Brent crude last report was 109.15 .
Gold was down this morning. Currently trading up at 1671.68, trading range is between 1676.95 and 1664.00 with a neutral bias.
Dr. Copper is at 3.61 down from 3.66 earlier.
The US dollar fell from 79.56 earlier to 79.02 and is currently trading up at 79.31.
** RRR = Risk Reward Ratio
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Written by Gary