December 17th, 2012
in Gary's blogging
Closing Market Commentary For 12-17-2012
Today's market action smacks solidly of HFT computer manipulation as the volume remains low enough for that sort of activity. Little news and the averages move around like there is major financial activity going on – very suspicious.
The markets closed again on-time which is about the most interesting item to report. The green volume while low, but moderate melted the numbers up towards the closing bell prepping the markets eventual decline as it once again bumps into the upper resistance.
I believe the Santa Clause rally is over, done, kaput! We will know tomorrow morning for sure. Watch for ever increasing slowing days as Christmas approaches. The final days of December could be a blowout so be prepared for the market to move radically one way or another.
The RRR** has been narrow at the opening bell for the past several months and continued the trend into the closing session. This continuing trend makes predictions of session movements nearly impossible making trading futile and unprofitable.
As long as market volume remains light or the trading range is narrow, one can expect successful trading to remain elusive. The RRR** has been wider on volatile sessions lately and is expected to become more so as the year ends, but a lot of guessing still remains. Correctly 'guessing', of course, is the tricky part of the successful trading equation. Any trades today will probably end up on the meager side of profitability if you are lucky as most trades have been less than optimal during this past year.
I also have issues with some pundits writing almost every day that there are setups for day trading. This may be true enough, but the trading range is so narrow that way too money has to be put on the table just to get back meager gains. Do not fall into the trap of money burning a hole in your pocket, sit tight better days are coming. Watch for increasing volume to signal improved trading.
Swing trading is also at your own risk for all the reasons mentioned above. Because the market is at a crossroads of sorts, I would prefer to sit on my hands as the markets are currently untradable. Guessing where the market is going to be tomorrow or next week, at this time anyway, can be a foolish and costly endeavor.
The DOW at 4:00 is at 13235 up 100 or 0.76%.
The SP500 is at 1430 up 16.78 or 1.19%.
SPY is at 143.85 up 1.74 or 1.22%.
The $RUT is at 835.00 up 11.25 or 1.37%.
NASDAQ is at 3010 up 39 or 1.32%.
The longer trend is up, the past months trend is bullish and the current bias is up.
WTI oil was up today and is currently trading up at 87.43 trading between 86.48 and 87.65 and the bias is neutral.
Brent crude last report was at 109.15.
Gold has been mixed this morning. Currently trading up at 1697.67, trading range is between 1686.00 and 1699.90 with a positive bias.
Dr. Copper is at 3.67 down from 3.69 earlier.
The US dollar fell from 79.78 earlier to 79.53 and is currently trading up at 79.62.
The 500 at the close. Notice the upper resistance where the 500 stopped. Here is where the battleground will be tomorrow.
The DOW at the close. The upper resistance will probably be hit tomorrow morning. If penetrated, unlikely, the Santa Claus rally will probably go on for several more days.
** RRR = Risk Reward Ratio
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Written by Gary