December 10th, 2012
in Gary's blogging
Closing Market Commentary For 12-10-2012
By noon the markets started to melt downward in an otherwise unremarkable session. Volume has consistently fallen off since the opening as the HFT algo computers took over.
Signs of weakness still prevail and it won't take much to push the averages off the cliff (pun intended). Lackluster, flat and barely green will be the action of the day.
The RRR** has been narrow at the opening bell for the past several months and continued the trend throughout the morning session. This trend makes predictions of movements during the session nearly impossible and trading becomes futile and unprofitable.
As long as market volume remains light or the trading range is narrow, one can expect successful trading to remain elusive. The RRR** has been wider on volatile sessions lately and is expected to become more so as the year ends, but a lot of guessing still remains. Correctly 'guessing', of course, is the tricky part of the successful trading equation. Any trades today will probably end up on the meager side of profitability if you are lucky as most trades have been less than optimal during this past year.
I also have issues with some pundits writing almost every day that there are setups for day trading. This may be true enough, but the trading range is so narrow that way too money has to be put on the table just to get back meager gains. Do not fall into the trap of money burning a hole in your pocket, sit tight better days are coming. Watch for increasing volume to signal improved trading.
Swing trading is also at your own risk for all the reasons mentioned above. Because the market is at a crossroads of sorts, I would prefer to sit on my hands as the markets are currently untradable. Guessing where the market is going to be tomorrow or next week, at this time anyway, can be a foolish and costly endeavor.
The DOW at 12:00 is at 13185 up 30 or 0.23%.
The SP500 is at 1420 up 2.10 or 0.15%.
SPY is at 142.66 up 0.24 or 0.17%.
The $RUT is at 825.61 up 3.33 or 0.40%.
NASDAQ is at 2990 up 12.22 or 0.39%.
The longer trend is up, the past months trend is bearish and the current bias is up.
WTI oil was up today and is currently trading down at 86.22 trading between 85.90 and 85.90 and the bias is negative.
Brent crude was up today and is currently trading down at 107.91 trading between 107.00 and 108.52 and the bias is negative.
Gold was up this morning. Currently trading down at 1712.30, trading range is between 102.50 and 1716.70 with a negative bias.
Dr. Copper is at 3.71 up from 3.66 earlier.
The US dollar was up from 80.29 earlier to 80.77 and is currently trading down at 80.50.
** RRR = Risk Reward Ratio
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Written by Gary