December 6th, 2012
in Gary's blogging
Opening Market Commentary For 12-06-2012
Premarket was even with yesterday's close although the DOW was up 22 and the 500 down 2 points. Not a good sign of things to come when you have such disparity in the large and small caps.
The market opened up a few points with most of the averages in the green. By the 15 minute mark the market reversed just about everything turned red – all on moderate volume while remaining flat. Follow up:
The RRR** has been narrow at the opening bell for the past several months and continued the trend again this morning. This trend makes predictions of movements during the session nearly impossible and trading becomes futile and unprofitable.
As long as market volume remains light or the trading range is narrow, one can expect successful trading to remain elusive. The RRR** has been wider on volatile sessions lately and is expected to become more so as the year ends, but a lot of guessing still remains. Correctly 'guessing', of course, is the tricky part of the successful trading equation. Any trades today will probably end up on the meager side of profitability if you are lucky as most trades have been less than optimal during this past year.
I also have issues with some pundits writing almost every day that there are setups for day trading. This may be true enough, but the trading range is so narrow that way too money has to be put on the table just to get back meager gains. Do not fall into the trap of money burning a hole in your pocket, sit tight better days are coming. Watch for increasing volume to signal improved trading.
Swing trading is also at your own risk for all the reasons mentioned above. Because the market is at a crossroads of sorts, I would prefer to sit on my hands as the markets are currently untradable. Guessing where the market is going to be tomorrow or next week, at this time anyway, can be a foolish and costly endeavor.
The DOW at 10:15 is at 13016 down 20 or -0.16%.
The SP500 is at 1406 down 2.67 or -0.16%.
SPY is at 141.30 down 0.25 or -0.15%.
The $RUT is at 818.35 down 2.25 or -0.27%.
NASDAQ is at 2974 up 1.17 or 0.04%.
The longer trend is up, the past months trend is bearish and the current bias is sideways.
WTI oil was down today and is currently trading up at 86.68 trading between 88.22 and 86.30 and the bias is negative.
Brent crude was down today and is currently trading down at 107.79 trading between 109.15 and 107.30 and the bias is negative.
Gold was choppy this morning. Currently trading up at 1694.00, trading range is between 1695.80 and 1685.88 with a positive bias.
Dr. Copper is at 3.68 up from 3.66 earlier.
The US dollar rose from 79.73 earlier to 80.12 and is currently trading up at 80.11.
WTI crude (USO) slips further in relevance with the Energy Department dropping the use of the benchmark for its annual oil price forecast. Brent crude (BNO) - now selling for $21/barrel more - will be used instead. "WTI has become a misleading price indicator for global economic growth," says researcher Gordon Kwan.
** RRR = Risk Reward Ratio
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Written by Gary