December 3rd, 2012
in Gary's blogging
Midday Market Commentary For 12-03-2012
Markets are muddling through the day. A brief opening bid to go higher was soon sent to Friday's closing numbers and has since stayed there. Flat, low volume and generally a slow day starting out the week.
A weak global financial outlook and the US 'fiscal cliff' worries have kept investors away from the markets and that just about sums up my feelings as well.
By 1 pm the averages started to move below the previous low mark in what appears to be more weakness on the horizon. Personally, I am getting more bearish by the minute. At least I can not see any reason to start getting bullish at this point.
The RRR** has been narrow at the opening bell for the past several months and continued the trend moving into the midday session. This trend makes predictions of movements during the session nearly impossible and trading becomes futile and mostly unprofitable.
As long as volume remains light or the trading range is narrow, one can expect successful trading to remain elusive. The RRR** has been getting wider lately and is expected to become more volatile during this last and next years first quarter, but a lot of guessing still remains and of course that is the tricky part of the successful trading equation. Any trades today will probably end up on the unprofitable side as they have during this past year.
I also have issues with some pundits writing almost every day that there are setups for day trading. This may be true enough, but the trading range is so narrow that way too money has to be put on the table just to get back meager gains. Do not fall into the trap of money burning a hole in your pocket, sit tight better days are coming.
Swing trading is also at your own risk and being the market is at a crossroads of sorts, I would prefer to sit on my hands rather than risk guessing incorrectly as the markets are currently untradable. Guessing where the market is going to be tomorrow or next week, at this time anyway, can be a foolish and costly endeavor.
The DOW at 1:00 is at 12995 down 30 or -0.24%.
The SP500 is at 1413 down 2.40 or -0.17%.
The $RUT is at 820.23 down 1.70 or -0.21%.
SPY is at 141.89 down 0.25 or -0.18%.
The longer trend is up, the past months trend is bearish and the current bias is bearish.
WTI oil was up this morning and is currently down at 89.11 trading between 88.67 and 90.32 and the bias is flat.
Brent crude was up this morning and is currently down at 110.94 trading between 110.85 and 112.33 and the bias is negative.
Gold was very volatile this morning. Currently trading down at 1716.63, trading range is between 1721.00 and 1712.88 with a neutral bias.
Dr. Copper is at 3.66 up from 3.65 earlier.
The US dollar falling from 80.21 earlier to 79.80 and is currently trading up at 79.86.
** RRR = Risk Reward Ratio
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Written by Gary