December 3rd, 2012
in Gary's blogging
Closing Market Commentary For 12-03-2012
At 4 pm the market closed down. Most of the session experienced low volume with a lack of buying investors. Most of the political talk from both sides of the aisle seem to be digging in suggesting to investors to tread carefully and perhaps taking some money off the table.
Not a whole lot to report today, but tomorrow could be a volatile one depending what everyone has to say.
The markets recent rise give credence to a fall back in the near future. Investing, trading or whatever you want to call it looks very scary for the near term.
The RRR** has been narrow at the opening bell for the past several months and continued the trend moving into the closing session. This trend makes predictions of movements during the session nearly impossible and trading becomes futile and mostly unprofitable. If I had to guess, I would take the bearish stance in light of some serious financial pain coming to a nation near you.
As long as volume remains light or the trading range is narrow, one can expect successful trading (with profits) to remain elusive. The RRR** has been getting wider lately and is expected to become more volatile during this last and next years first quarter, but a lot of guessing still remains and of course that is the tricky part of the successful trading equation. Any trades today will probably end up on the unprofitable side as they have during this past year.
I also have issues with some pundits writing almost every day that there are setups for day trading. This may be true enough, but the trading range is so narrow that way too money has to be put on the table just to get back meager gains. Do not fall into the trap of money burning a hole in your pocket, sit tight better days are coming.
Swing trading is also at your own risk and being the market is at a crossroads of sorts, I would prefer to sit on my hands rather than risk guessing incorrectly as the markets are currently untradable. Guessing where the market is going to be tomorrow or next week, at this time anyway, can be a foolish and costly endeavor.
The DOW at 4:00 is at 12965 down 60 or -0.46%.
The SP500 is at 1409 down 7 or -0.47%.
The $RUT is at 820.80 down 1.12 or -0.14%.
SPY is at 141.35 down 0.81 or -0.57%.
The longer trend is up, the past months trend is bearish and the current bias is bearish.
WTI oil was up this morning and is currently down at 89.04 trading between 88.67 and 90.32 and the bias is flat.
Brent crude was up this morning and is currently up at 110.91 trading between 110.70 and 112.33 and the bias is negative.
Gold was very volatile this morning. Currently trading up at 1715.69, trading range is between 1721.00 and 1712.88 with a negative bias.
Dr. Copper is at 3.65 down from 3.66 earlier.
The US dollar falling from 80.21 earlier to 79.80 and is currently trading up at 79.91.
The 500 at the close. An noted resistance by most analysts is at 1425. The SP500 moved up to 1423.73 at the opening and continued to melt down throughout today's session. Something to watch in the coming week.
The DOW at the close. After 3 or 4 days of inaction and lackluster trading, the DOW moves up and then drops speedily. Will be interesting to see if this pattern continues, but I am not going to gamble on it with my money.
** RRR = Risk Reward Ratio
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Written by Gary