November 19th, 2012
in Gary's blogging
Opening Market Commentary For 11-19-2012
SPY was up 1.44 on light volume early in premarket action indicating a gap up for the cash market. By the opening the DOW had jumped up to 115 points lagging most of the other major averages which were well up over 1%. The opening green volume was a bit higher than the usual low numbers, but fell off to the the bears by 9:45. By 10 am the advance was still underway BUT on falling volume.
I would have expected the markets to be subdued all this week in light of Thanksgiving Day on Thursday effectively making this a 2 day week. I too will be taking a vacation starting Wednesday but will try to keep an eye on the going on's via my 'smart phone'. If I spot anything important I’ll find a way to report it all to my readers.
I do not have any Worldly advice this morning as the usual Thanksgiving week is typical slow and lackluster, but not this morning. The one 'monkey wrench' thrown into the mix this time around is the Greece problems, the looming 'fiscal cliff' and most importantly what some investors are going to do in light of increased capital gains taxes.
Are they going to sell this month – like right now and then buy back at the end of December or what. Many questions that need to be answered, but we should know by November 29th because these traders need to comply with the IRS 'Wash Rule'.
The RRR** was narrow at the opening bell, but the gap created from Friday's closing was significant. It is getting wider lately, but a lot of guessing still remains and of course that is the tricky part of the successful trading equation. Any trades today will probably end up on the unprofitable side as long as this market remains flat or continues to have low volume.
Best Stock Market Indicator Ever Update: At 48% and Now Below the Crucial 50% Level “Luckily, OEXA200R should give us ample advance warning of the next major correction however we want to trade it. Buckle up!”
I have issues with some traders in that they are saying there are setups for day trading. This is true enough, but the trading range is so narrow that way too money has to be put on the table just to get back meager gains.
Swing trading is also at your own risk and being the market is at a crossroads of sorts, I would prefer to sit on my hands rather than risk guessing incorrectly as the markets are currently untradable. Guessing where the market is going to be tomorrow or next week, at this time anyway, is a foolish endeavor.
The DOW at 10:15 is at 17732 up 143 or 1.14%.
The SP500 is at 1378 up 19 or 1.40%.
The $RUT is at 787.39 up 11.08 or 1.42%.
SPY is at 138.26 up 1.85 or 1.37%.
The longer trend is up, the past months trend is bearish and the current bias is up.
WTI oil is up today and is currently down at 89.00 trading between 87.00 earlier and 89.10 and the bias is positive.
Brent crude was up this morning and is now trading at 111.32 ranging between 109.90 and 111.41 and the bias is positive.
Gold was up this morning. Currently trading down at 1730.10, trading range is between 1713.84 and 1731.65 with a sideways bias.
Dr. Copper is at 3.52 up from 3.45 earlier.
The US dollar fell from 81.25 earlier to 80.90 and is currently trading up at 81.05.
** RRR = Risk Reward Ratio
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Written by Gary