November 16th, 2012
in Gary's blogging
Closing Market Commentary For 11-16-2012
Not an encouraging sign watching the averages creep up on low volume this afternoon as it looks like manipulative forces the HFT can leverage. Rising market numbers like this always return to original levels whenever the algo computers push them up, so be careful on Monday. The market is still weak and all the politicians have done today is blow some hot air around; nothing has changed. Keep your eye on the support level that was flirted with this morning on Monday. The markets have closed above that level, but remain dangerously close.
The market closed in the green, flat and unexciting. The last few minutes were spent by traders jockeying for a position on Monday – good luck I say.
The investors trying to decide on the capital gains tax ramifications on their portfolio still have a few days left to sell and repurchase at the end of the year according to the IRS 'wash' rules. I will not be surprised to see volatility next week as we come up on the Thanksgiving Holiday and investors HAVE to make profit taking decisions that may not be available next year.
The RRR** was narrow at the opening bell and remained tight into the closing session. It is getting wider lately, but a lot of guessing still remains and of course that is the tricky part of the successful trading equation. Any trades today will probably end up on the unprofitable side as long as this market remains flat or continues to have low volume.
I have issues with some traders in that they are saying there are setups for day trading. This is true enough, but the trading range is so narrow that way too money has to be put on the table just to get back meager gains.
Swing trading is also at your own risk and being the market is at a crossroads of sorts, I would prefer to sit on my hands rather than risk guessing incorrectly as the markets are currently untradable. Guessing where the market is going to be tomorrow or next week, at this time anyway, is a foolish endeavor.
The DOW at 4:00 is at 12588 up 46 or 0.37%.
The 500 is at 1359.88 up 6.55 or 0.48%.
The $RUT is at 776.28 up 6.80 or 0.88%.
SPY is at 136.66 up 0.94 or 0.69%.
The longer trend is up, the past months trend is bearish and the current bias is up.
WTI oil is up today and is at 86.67 trading between 85.01 and 86.94 and the bias is positive.
Brent crude last reported at 110.98.
Gold was down this morning. Currently trading up at 1712.65, trading range is between 1717.17 and 1705.00 with a negative bias.
Dr. Copper is at 3.45 down from 3.47 earlier.
The US dollar rose from 81.07 earlier to 81.51 and is currently trading down at 81.26.
The 500 at the close.
The DOW at the close.
** RRR = Risk Reward Ratio
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Written by Gary