November 13th, 2012
in Gary's blogging
Midday Market Commentary For 11-13-2012
A little late getting to all of you – meetings and a long business lunch but you haven't missed much. Today's session is a repeat of yesterday's session with a tad more volume than yesterday and the session before that.
Markets are up but flat as a pancake. Go ahead and take the day off.
The RRR** was very narrow at the opening bell and continuing into the afternoon, just as it has been for the past month. I just wish my crystal ball would give me a glimpse into what the next day would be. Any trades today will probably end up on the unprofitable side as long as this market remains flat or continues to have low volume.
I have issues with some traders in that they are saying there are setups for day trading. This is true enough, but the trading range is so narrow that way too money has to be put on the table just to get back meager gains.
Swing trading is also at your own risk and being the market is at a crossroads of sorts, I would prefer to sit on my hands rather than risk guessing incorrectly as the markets are currently untradable. Guessing where the market is going to be tomorrow or next week, at this time anyway, is a foolish endeavor.
The DOW at 2:15 is at 12855 up 41 or 0.82%.
The 500 is at 1385 up 5.57 or 0.41%.
The $RUT is at 794.08 up 0.32 or 0.04%.
SPY is at 138.92 up 0.65 or 0.47%.
The longer trend is up, the past months trend is bearish and the current bias is neutral.
WTI oil was down today and is trading even at 85.22 trading between 85.96 and 84.58 and the bias is positive.
Brent crude was up today and is trading down at 108.10 trading between 108.90 and 107.38 and the bias is neutral.
Gold is down this morning. Currently trading down at 1725.50, trading range is between 1733.25 and 1718.04 with a negative bias.
Dr. Copper is at 3.48 up from 3.42 earlier.
The US dollar fell from 81.31 earlier to 81.04 and is currently trading down at 81.12.
The next few sessions are going to be interesting as just about everyone is expecting doom and gloom. That rarely happens when 'everyone' is expecting it.
A bifurcated market?
The SPY is holding within its rising wedge pattern right now. Yes, it is moving lower, but it is still above its support.
At the same time, the NASDAQ 100 fell below the support of its rising wedge.
One holding, one in an apparent breakdown. But, both indexes are still in an up trend because they have maintained their higher/highs and higher/lows. (The charts for the SPY and the NASDAQ 100 are posted below.)
It is a bifurcated market, where Inflowing Liquidity levels are the glue keeping things together.
Years ago when I was in college, I had an old car that was the equivalent of being glued together. It ran fine and got me to where I wanted to be ... but it couldn't be described as safe, and neither can this market right now.
** RRR = Risk Reward Ratio
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Written by Gary